Trader consensus favors "No" at 66.5% implied probability for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, as NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog reports none to date despite a Q1 surge doubling large events (50+ witnesses) per American Meteor Society data. This uptick—featuring a 0.25kt Ohio airburst in March and bright fireballs over Europe, UK, and New Zealand—reflects enhanced detection from global sensors and public reporting rather than elevated risk, with no tracked near-Earth objects threatening impact via CNEOS Sentry. Historical baselines show 5kt-scale events as infrequent globally, though seven months remain and Eta Aquariids activity adds uncertainty ahead of ongoing data updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Frappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Oui
$299,806 Vol.
$299,806 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$299,806 Vol.
$299,806 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favors "No" at 66.5% implied probability for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, as NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog reports none to date despite a Q1 surge doubling large events (50+ witnesses) per American Meteor Society data. This uptick—featuring a 0.25kt Ohio airburst in March and bright fireballs over Europe, UK, and New Zealand—reflects enhanced detection from global sensors and public reporting rather than elevated risk, with no tracked near-Earth objects threatening impact via CNEOS Sentry. Historical baselines show 5kt-scale events as infrequent globally, though seven months remain and Eta Aquariids activity adds uncertainty ahead of ongoing data updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$299,806Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favors "No" at 66.5% implied probability for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, as NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog reports none to date despite a Q1 surge doubling large events (50+ witnesses) per American Meteor Society data. This uptick—featuring a 0.25kt Ohio airburst in March and bright fireballs over Europe, UK, and New Zealand—reflects enhanced detection from global sensors and public reporting rather than elevated risk, with no tracked near-Earth objects threatening impact via CNEOS Sentry. Historical baselines show 5kt-scale events as infrequent globally, though seven months remain and Eta Aquariids activity adds uncertainty ahead of ongoing data updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$299,806Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 66.5% implied probability for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, as NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog reports none to date despite a Q1 surge doubling large events (50+ witnesses) per American Meteor Society data. This uptick—featuring a 0.25kt Ohio airburst in March and bright fireballs over Europe, UK, and New Zealand—reflects enhanced detection from global sensors and public reporting rather than elevated risk, with no tracked near-Earth objects threatening impact via CNEOS Sentry. Historical baselines show 5kt-scale events as infrequent globally, though seven months remain and Eta Aquariids activity adds uncertainty ahead of ongoing data updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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