Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA surveys confirm no cataloged near-Earth objects large enough for a 5-kiloton airburst remain on collision courses through December 2026, anchoring the 68% market-implied probability of “No.” Recent Q1 2026 spikes in reported fireballs reflect only sub-meter objects that disintegrate harmlessly, with no corresponding rise in larger bolides capable of reaching kiloton energies. Historical rates for 1–10 kt events average roughly once per decade globally, and the absence of new impactor detections or revised orbital solutions continues to support trader consensus for a quiet remainder of the year. Continuous wide-field monitoring and any late discoveries remain the key variables that could shift these odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Frappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Oui
32% chance
$311,757 Vol.
$311,757 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
32% chance
$311,757 Vol.
$311,757 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA surveys confirm no cataloged near-Earth objects large enough for a 5-kiloton airburst remain on collision courses through December 2026, anchoring the 68% market-implied probability of “No.” Recent Q1 2026 spikes in reported fireballs reflect only sub-meter objects that disintegrate harmlessly, with no corresponding rise in larger bolides capable of reaching kiloton energies. Historical rates for 1–10 kt events average roughly once per decade globally, and the absence of new impactor detections or revised orbital solutions continues to support trader consensus for a quiet remainder of the year. Continuous wide-field monitoring and any late discoveries remain the key variables that could shift these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$311,757Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA surveys confirm no cataloged near-Earth objects large enough for a 5-kiloton airburst remain on collision courses through December 2026, anchoring the 68% market-implied probability of “No.” Recent Q1 2026 spikes in reported fireballs reflect only sub-meter objects that disintegrate harmlessly, with no corresponding rise in larger bolides capable of reaching kiloton energies. Historical rates for 1–10 kt events average roughly once per decade globally, and the absence of new impactor detections or revised orbital solutions continues to support trader consensus for a quiet remainder of the year. Continuous wide-field monitoring and any late discoveries remain the key variables that could shift these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$311,757Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA surveys confirm no cataloged near-Earth objects large enough for a 5-kiloton airburst remain on collision courses through December 2026, anchoring the 68% market-implied probability of “No.” Recent Q1 2026 spikes in reported fireballs reflect only sub-meter objects that disintegrate harmlessly, with no corresponding rise in larger bolides capable of reaching kiloton energies. Historical rates for 1–10 kt events average roughly once per decade globally, and the absence of new impactor detections or revised orbital solutions continues to support trader consensus for a quiet remainder of the year. Continuous wide-field monitoring and any late discoveries remain the key variables that could shift these odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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