Trader consensus reflects a 78% market-implied probability for no new CDC Level 4 "Do Not Travel" health warning by December 31, driven by the complete absence of any current Level 4 notices and stable global outbreak surveillance as of early May 2026. Official CDC data shows zero Level 4 or even Level 3 travel health alerts, with recent Level 2 notices—for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and chikungunya in Mayotte—issued in March and not escalating due to contained transmission and vaccination responses. Mpox clade IIb cases exceed 100,000 globally since 2022 but remain managed without extreme risk thresholds met, while CDC affirmed low hantavirus outbreak threat on May 9. Level 4 designations require severe, widespread public health crises like historic Ebola epidemics; no such indicators exist now. Watch WHO weekly reports and CDC updates for any novel pathogen surges that could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLe CDC émet un avertissement de niveau 4 d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Le CDC émet un avertissement de niveau 4 d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Oui
$71,397 Vol.
$71,397 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$71,397 Vol.
$71,397 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 78% market-implied probability for no new CDC Level 4 "Do Not Travel" health warning by December 31, driven by the complete absence of any current Level 4 notices and stable global outbreak surveillance as of early May 2026. Official CDC data shows zero Level 4 or even Level 3 travel health alerts, with recent Level 2 notices—for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and chikungunya in Mayotte—issued in March and not escalating due to contained transmission and vaccination responses. Mpox clade IIb cases exceed 100,000 globally since 2022 but remain managed without extreme risk thresholds met, while CDC affirmed low hantavirus outbreak threat on May 9. Level 4 designations require severe, widespread public health crises like historic Ebola epidemics; no such indicators exist now. Watch WHO weekly reports and CDC updates for any novel pathogen surges that could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$71,397Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 78% market-implied probability for no new CDC Level 4 "Do Not Travel" health warning by December 31, driven by the complete absence of any current Level 4 notices and stable global outbreak surveillance as of early May 2026. Official CDC data shows zero Level 4 or even Level 3 travel health alerts, with recent Level 2 notices—for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and chikungunya in Mayotte—issued in March and not escalating due to contained transmission and vaccination responses. Mpox clade IIb cases exceed 100,000 globally since 2022 but remain managed without extreme risk thresholds met, while CDC affirmed low hantavirus outbreak threat on May 9. Level 4 designations require severe, widespread public health crises like historic Ebola epidemics; no such indicators exist now. Watch WHO weekly reports and CDC updates for any novel pathogen surges that could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$71,397Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 78% market-implied probability for no new CDC Level 4 "Do Not Travel" health warning by December 31, driven by the complete absence of any current Level 4 notices and stable global outbreak surveillance as of early May 2026. Official CDC data shows zero Level 4 or even Level 3 travel health alerts, with recent Level 2 notices—for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and chikungunya in Mayotte—issued in March and not escalating due to contained transmission and vaccination responses. Mpox clade IIb cases exceed 100,000 globally since 2022 but remain managed without extreme risk thresholds met, while CDC affirmed low hantavirus outbreak threat on May 9. Level 4 designations require severe, widespread public health crises like historic Ebola epidemics; no such indicators exist now. Watch WHO weekly reports and CDC updates for any novel pathogen surges that could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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