Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas livestock and a New Mexico dog since June 3, 2026, represent the primary catalyst shifting trader sentiment toward higher odds of a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS has confirmed multiple cases of this obligate parasite, whose larvae cause myiasis by burrowing into living tissue of warm-blooded animals, following its northward advance through Mexico. This marks the first U.S. livestock infestations in decades after eradication via sterile insect technique in 1966. Federal actions already include the August 2025 HHS declaration enabling FDA emergency use authorizations for animal drugs and Texas statewide disaster proclamations, but a broader presidential or USDA national emergency would activate additional authorities for movement controls, expanded sterile fly releases, and resource allocation. Summer temperatures favoring fly activity, ongoing surveillance data releases, and any new case confirmations or model updates from APHIS could materially influence resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
NOUVEAU
1 janv. 2027
30 juin
36%
August 30
51%
31 octobre
52%
December 31
52%
$3 Vol.
30 juin
$3 Vol.
36%
August 30
$0 Vol.
51%
31 octobre
$0 Vol.
52%
December 31
$0 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas livestock and a New Mexico dog since June 3, 2026, represent the primary catalyst shifting trader sentiment toward higher odds of a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS has confirmed multiple cases of this obligate parasite, whose larvae cause myiasis by burrowing into living tissue of warm-blooded animals, following its northward advance through Mexico. This marks the first U.S. livestock infestations in decades after eradication via sterile insect technique in 1966. Federal actions already include the August 2025 HHS declaration enabling FDA emergency use authorizations for animal drugs and Texas statewide disaster proclamations, but a broader presidential or USDA national emergency would activate additional authorities for movement controls, expanded sterile fly releases, and resource allocation. Summer temperatures favoring fly activity, ongoing surveillance data releases, and any new case confirmations or model updates from APHIS could materially influence resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$3Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas livestock and a New Mexico dog since June 3, 2026, represent the primary catalyst shifting trader sentiment toward higher odds of a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS has confirmed multiple cases of this obligate parasite, whose larvae cause myiasis by burrowing into living tissue of warm-blooded animals, following its northward advance through Mexico. This marks the first U.S. livestock infestations in decades after eradication via sterile insect technique in 1966. Federal actions already include the August 2025 HHS declaration enabling FDA emergency use authorizations for animal drugs and Texas statewide disaster proclamations, but a broader presidential or USDA national emergency would activate additional authorities for movement controls, expanded sterile fly releases, and resource allocation. Summer temperatures favoring fly activity, ongoing surveillance data releases, and any new case confirmations or model updates from APHIS could materially influence resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas livestock and a New Mexico dog since June 3, 2026, represent the primary catalyst shifting trader sentiment toward higher odds of a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS has confirmed multiple cases of this obligate parasite, whose larvae cause myiasis by burrowing into living tissue of warm-blooded animals, following its northward advance through Mexico. This marks the first U.S. livestock infestations in decades after eradication via sterile insect technique in 1966. Federal actions already include the August 2025 HHS declaration enabling FDA emergency use authorizations for animal drugs and Texas statewide disaster proclamations, but a broader presidential or USDA national emergency would activate additional authorities for movement controls, expanded sterile fly releases, and resource allocation. Summer temperatures favoring fly activity, ongoing surveillance data releases, and any new case confirmations or model updates from APHIS could materially influence resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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