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icon for La mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ?

La mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ?

icon for La mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ?

La mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ?

Oui

7% chance
Polymarket

$800,233 Vol.

Oui

7% chance
Polymarket

$800,233 Vol.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.8% implied probability against the Doge-1 lunar CubeSat launching before 2027, driven by the mission's protracted delays since its 2021 announcement for a Q1 2022 SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare slot, with no firm integration or manifest assignment despite Geometric Energy Corporation's H2 2026 target reiterated in April. Official updates, including a website countdown to early 2027 and Elon Musk's February remark of "maybe next year," underscore technical readiness hurdles and competition for scarce lunar trajectory windows amid SpaceX's packed schedule. While Falcon 9 reliability exceeds 98% historically, secondary payloads like this 12U satellite hinge on primary mission timelines. A sudden rideshare confirmation or expedited NASA FCC approvals could shift odds, with key updates expected from SpaceX manifests or Geometric briefings soon.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$800,233
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.8% implied probability against the Doge-1 lunar CubeSat launching before 2027, driven by the mission's protracted delays since its 2021 announcement for a Q1 2022 SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare slot, with no firm integration or manifest assignment despite Geometric Energy Corporation's H2 2026 target reiterated in April. Official updates, including a website countdown to early 2027 and Elon Musk's February remark of "maybe next year," underscore technical readiness hurdles and competition for scarce lunar trajectory windows amid SpaceX's packed schedule. While Falcon 9 reliability exceeds 98% historically, secondary payloads like this 12U satellite hinge on primary mission timelines. A sudden rideshare confirmation or expedited NASA FCC approvals could shift odds, with key updates expected from SpaceX manifests or Geometric briefings soon.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$800,233
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

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« La mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « La mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ? » à 7%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 7¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 7% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « La mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ? » a généré $800.2K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 7, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « La mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « La mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ? » est « La mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ? » à seulement 7%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « La mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.