**Former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero remains under judicial investigation at the Audiencia Nacional in the Caso Plus Ultra, centered on alleged influence peddling, criminal organization, and money laundering tied to the 2021 €53 million public bailout of the airline.** The probe expanded after a May 2026 office search uncovered jewelry valued over €1.3 million, prompting separate inquiries into potential tax fraud and smuggling. Zapatero testified in June, denied all wrongdoing, and the judge rejected prosecution requests for passport seizure or other precautionary measures, citing no demonstrated flight risk. As of mid-September 2026, the case stays in the instruction phase with active defense appeals over bank records and peripheral claims involving Bolivia. Spanish judicial timelines for complex corruption matters typically extend years without immediate detention for cooperative, high-profile figures. Trader consensus on related Polymarket contracts reflects this, pricing arrest by December 31, 2026, as unlikely absent new evidence triggering escalation. Upcoming procedural rulings or Senate testimony could influence developments within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJosé Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sera-t-il arrêté par… ?
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sera-t-il arrêté par… ?
$55,907 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre 2026
13%
$55,907 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
$4,750 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero remains under judicial investigation at the Audiencia Nacional in the Caso Plus Ultra, centered on alleged influence peddling, criminal organization, and money laundering tied to the 2021 €53 million public bailout of the airline.**
The probe expanded after a May 2026 office search uncovered jewelry valued over €1.3 million, prompting separate inquiries into potential tax fraud and smuggling. Zapatero testified in June, denied all wrongdoing, and the judge rejected prosecution requests for passport seizure or other precautionary measures, citing no demonstrated flight risk. As of mid-September 2026, the case stays in the instruction phase with active defense appeals over bank records and peripheral claims involving Bolivia. Spanish judicial timelines for complex corruption matters typically extend years without immediate detention for cooperative, high-profile figures. Trader consensus on related Polymarket contracts reflects this, pricing arrest by December 31, 2026, as unlikely absent new evidence triggering escalation. Upcoming procedural rulings or Senate testimony could influence developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 28, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Volume
$55,907Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 28, 2026, 6:23 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero remains under judicial investigation at the Audiencia Nacional in the Caso Plus Ultra, centered on alleged influence peddling, criminal organization, and money laundering tied to the 2021 €53 million public bailout of the airline.**
The probe expanded after a May 2026 office search uncovered jewelry valued over €1.3 million, prompting separate inquiries into potential tax fraud and smuggling. Zapatero testified in June, denied all wrongdoing, and the judge rejected prosecution requests for passport seizure or other precautionary measures, citing no demonstrated flight risk. As of mid-September 2026, the case stays in the instruction phase with active defense appeals over bank records and peripheral claims involving Bolivia. Spanish judicial timelines for complex corruption matters typically extend years without immediate detention for cooperative, high-profile figures. Trader consensus on related Polymarket contracts reflects this, pricing arrest by December 31, 2026, as unlikely absent new evidence triggering escalation. Upcoming procedural rulings or Senate testimony could influence developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$55,907Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 28, 2026, 6:23 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero remains under judicial investigation at the Audiencia Nacional in the Caso Plus Ultra, centered on alleged influence peddling, criminal organization, and money laundering tied to the 2021 €53 million public bailout of the airline.** The probe expanded after a May 2026 office search uncovered jewelry valued over €1.3 million, prompting separate inquiries into potential tax fraud and smuggling. Zapatero testified in June, denied all wrongdoing, and the judge rejected prosecution requests for passport seizure or other precautionary measures, citing no demonstrated flight risk. As of mid-September 2026, the case stays in the instruction phase with active defense appeals over bank records and peripheral claims involving Bolivia. Spanish judicial timelines for complex corruption matters typically extend years without immediate detention for cooperative, high-profile figures. Trader consensus on related Polymarket contracts reflects this, pricing arrest by December 31, 2026, as unlikely absent new evidence triggering escalation. Upcoming procedural rulings or Senate testimony could influence developments within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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