Recent US-brokered diplomacy, including February Geneva trilateral meetings and a June deadline for progress, has produced limited results such as multiple prisoner-of-war exchanges in April through early June and brief pauses around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 open letter to Russian President Putin proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire, bilateral talks, and an “all-for-all” exchange, yet formal negotiations remain stalled over territorial demands and monitoring terms. Intensified Russian strikes and Ukrainian rejections of partial offers continue amid US attention on other regions, leaving traders focused on whether these incremental steps can yield a publicly announced mutual halt before the June 30 window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$5,076,681 Vol.
30 juin 2026
June 30
<1%
October 31
27%
August 31
13%
December 31
43%
$5,076,681 Vol.
June 30
$1,711,163 Vol.
<1%
October 31
$589,770 Vol.
27%
August 31
$27,320 Vol.
13%
December 31
$1,932,242 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-brokered diplomacy, including February Geneva trilateral meetings and a June deadline for progress, has produced limited results such as multiple prisoner-of-war exchanges in April through early June and brief pauses around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 open letter to Russian President Putin proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire, bilateral talks, and an “all-for-all” exchange, yet formal negotiations remain stalled over territorial demands and monitoring terms. Intensified Russian strikes and Ukrainian rejections of partial offers continue amid US attention on other regions, leaving traders focused on whether these incremental steps can yield a publicly announced mutual halt before the June 30 window closes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$5,076,681Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-brokered diplomacy, including February Geneva trilateral meetings and a June deadline for progress, has produced limited results such as multiple prisoner-of-war exchanges in April through early June and brief pauses around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 open letter to Russian President Putin proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire, bilateral talks, and an “all-for-all” exchange, yet formal negotiations remain stalled over territorial demands and monitoring terms. Intensified Russian strikes and Ukrainian rejections of partial offers continue amid US attention on other regions, leaving traders focused on whether these incremental steps can yield a publicly announced mutual halt before the June 30 window closes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,076,681Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-brokered diplomacy, including February Geneva trilateral meetings and a June deadline for progress, has produced limited results such as multiple prisoner-of-war exchanges in April through early June and brief pauses around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 open letter to Russian President Putin proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire, bilateral talks, and an “all-for-all” exchange, yet formal negotiations remain stalled over territorial demands and monitoring terms. Intensified Russian strikes and Ukrainian rejections of partial offers continue amid US attention on other regions, leaving traders focused on whether these incremental steps can yield a publicly announced mutual halt before the June 30 window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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