Ongoing active hostilities, extended martial law through at least October 2026, and constitutional barriers to national votes during wartime have kept any Ukraine peace referendum off the immediate agenda. Early 2026 U.S.-Ukrainian discussions of a May vote alongside elections produced no follow-through, as no ceasefire or security guarantees materialized and public polling showed strong resistance to territorial concessions. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to “No” because organizing, approving, and ratifying such a referendum requires prior de-escalation and months of preparation that remain absent. The sole plausible shifts before year-end would involve an abrupt verified ceasefire followed by rapid legal changes enabling a binding national vote, developments that have not occurred in the current cycle.