Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomatic efforts continue to shape trader views on the low likelihood of a Ukrainian peace referendum passing before 2027. Core disputes over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality remain unresolved despite earlier US-mediated talks in Geneva and other venues earlier in 2026. Russia's rejection of direct leader-level meetings in early June, coupled with insistence on achieving stated objectives before halting hostilities, has further reduced prospects for a near-term ceasefire required to enable voting under martial law. Extensions of martial law through August 2026 and public polling showing limited support for major territorial compromises reinforce barriers, with any referendum contingent on a prior binding agreement that traders assess as improbable within the timeframe.