Ukraine’s ongoing refusal to accept any form of neutrality pledge continues to underpin the 83.5% trader consensus against an agreement to forgo NATO membership before 2027. President Zelenskyy’s April 2026 public rejection of “NATO Light” options and insistence on full accession have reinforced this stance, while stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks since late 2025 have produced no movement on security guarantees or alliance restrictions. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s recent comments highlighted the absence of allied consensus and the requirement for unanimous approval plus completed reforms, leaving Ukraine focused instead on EU accession timelines without binding NATO limitations. These factors have kept implied probabilities stable, with any shift dependent on major diplomatic breakthroughs in the remaining resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$99,726 Vol.
$99,726 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$99,726 Vol.
$99,726 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s ongoing refusal to accept any form of neutrality pledge continues to underpin the 83.5% trader consensus against an agreement to forgo NATO membership before 2027. President Zelenskyy’s April 2026 public rejection of “NATO Light” options and insistence on full accession have reinforced this stance, while stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks since late 2025 have produced no movement on security guarantees or alliance restrictions. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s recent comments highlighted the absence of allied consensus and the requirement for unanimous approval plus completed reforms, leaving Ukraine focused instead on EU accession timelines without binding NATO limitations. These factors have kept implied probabilities stable, with any shift dependent on major diplomatic breakthroughs in the remaining resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$99,726Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s ongoing refusal to accept any form of neutrality pledge continues to underpin the 83.5% trader consensus against an agreement to forgo NATO membership before 2027. President Zelenskyy’s April 2026 public rejection of “NATO Light” options and insistence on full accession have reinforced this stance, while stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks since late 2025 have produced no movement on security guarantees or alliance restrictions. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s recent comments highlighted the absence of allied consensus and the requirement for unanimous approval plus completed reforms, leaving Ukraine focused instead on EU accession timelines without binding NATO limitations. These factors have kept implied probabilities stable, with any shift dependent on major diplomatic breakthroughs in the remaining resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$99,726Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s ongoing refusal to accept any form of neutrality pledge continues to underpin the 83.5% trader consensus against an agreement to forgo NATO membership before 2027. President Zelenskyy’s April 2026 public rejection of “NATO Light” options and insistence on full accession have reinforced this stance, while stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks since late 2025 have produced no movement on security guarantees or alliance restrictions. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s recent comments highlighted the absence of allied consensus and the requirement for unanimous approval plus completed reforms, leaving Ukraine focused instead on EU accession timelines without binding NATO limitations. These factors have kept implied probabilities stable, with any shift dependent on major diplomatic breakthroughs in the remaining resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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