Ukraine continues to pursue NATO membership as a core constitutional objective, with recent NATO summits reaffirming an "irreversible path" to accession and allies committing €70 billion in military aid for 2026 plus equivalent support in 2027. Ukrainian leadership, including President Zelenskyy, has pressed for accelerated integration at events like the Ankara Summit, while no formal diplomatic agreement or concession has emerged restricting entry before 2027. Ongoing conflict with Russia remains the primary practical barrier, yet trader consensus reflects sustained Western backing, Ukrainian public and official resolve, and absence of verified moves toward a self-imposed delay. Historical patterns of alliance expansion and lack of recent breakthroughs in peace talks that would require such a concession further anchor expectations against any near-term agreement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
9% chance
$134,442 Vol.
$134,442 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
9% chance
$134,442 Vol.
$134,442 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine continues to pursue NATO membership as a core constitutional objective, with recent NATO summits reaffirming an "irreversible path" to accession and allies committing €70 billion in military aid for 2026 plus equivalent support in 2027. Ukrainian leadership, including President Zelenskyy, has pressed for accelerated integration at events like the Ankara Summit, while no formal diplomatic agreement or concession has emerged restricting entry before 2027. Ongoing conflict with Russia remains the primary practical barrier, yet trader consensus reflects sustained Western backing, Ukrainian public and official resolve, and absence of verified moves toward a self-imposed delay. Historical patterns of alliance expansion and lack of recent breakthroughs in peace talks that would require such a concession further anchor expectations against any near-term agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$134,442Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine continues to pursue NATO membership as a core constitutional objective, with recent NATO summits reaffirming an "irreversible path" to accession and allies committing €70 billion in military aid for 2026 plus equivalent support in 2027. Ukrainian leadership, including President Zelenskyy, has pressed for accelerated integration at events like the Ankara Summit, while no formal diplomatic agreement or concession has emerged restricting entry before 2027. Ongoing conflict with Russia remains the primary practical barrier, yet trader consensus reflects sustained Western backing, Ukrainian public and official resolve, and absence of verified moves toward a self-imposed delay. Historical patterns of alliance expansion and lack of recent breakthroughs in peace talks that would require such a concession further anchor expectations against any near-term agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$134,442Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine continues to pursue NATO membership as a core constitutional objective, with recent NATO summits reaffirming an "irreversible path" to accession and allies committing €70 billion in military aid for 2026 plus equivalent support in 2027. Ukrainian leadership, including President Zelenskyy, has pressed for accelerated integration at events like the Ankara Summit, while no formal diplomatic agreement or concession has emerged restricting entry before 2027. Ongoing conflict with Russia remains the primary practical barrier, yet trader consensus reflects sustained Western backing, Ukrainian public and official resolve, and absence of verified moves toward a self-imposed delay. Historical patterns of alliance expansion and lack of recent breakthroughs in peace talks that would require such a concession further anchor expectations against any near-term agreement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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