NASA and international near-Earth object surveys have detected no asteroids or comets large enough—typically 10–20 meters across for 100-kiloton yields—to intersect Earth on a collision trajectory through the remainder of 2026. This absence of catalogued threats, combined with the statistical rarity of such events (roughly one every several decades globally), underpins the 97% market-implied probability of “No.” Ongoing radar and optical monitoring continues to rule out significant risks from known objects, though a small fraction of faint, sunward-approaching bodies could theoretically evade detection until late in their approach. Any resolution would require verified energy release above the threshold, confirmed via seismic, infrasound, or satellite data from agencies like NASA.