NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system currently lists zero near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring the strong trader consensus behind an implied 91.8 percent probability of no such event. Ongoing optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey, supplemented by infrared capabilities from the NEO Surveyor mission, have cataloged all known candidates above roughly 30 meters with high completeness, while historical records show impacts of this scale occur only once every few decades on average. The modest residual uncertainty stems from the possibility of a fast-moving, undetected bolide under 30 meters evading pre-entry detection, though cumulative model runs through mid-May reinforce negligible odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour100kt de météorites en 2026 ?
100kt de météorites en 2026 ?
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system currently lists zero near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring the strong trader consensus behind an implied 91.8 percent probability of no such event. Ongoing optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey, supplemented by infrared capabilities from the NEO Surveyor mission, have cataloged all known candidates above roughly 30 meters with high completeness, while historical records show impacts of this scale occur only once every few decades on average. The modest residual uncertainty stems from the possibility of a fast-moving, undetected bolide under 30 meters evading pre-entry detection, though cumulative model runs through mid-May reinforce negligible odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$7,235Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system currently lists zero near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring the strong trader consensus behind an implied 91.8 percent probability of no such event. Ongoing optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey, supplemented by infrared capabilities from the NEO Surveyor mission, have cataloged all known candidates above roughly 30 meters with high completeness, while historical records show impacts of this scale occur only once every few decades on average. The modest residual uncertainty stems from the possibility of a fast-moving, undetected bolide under 30 meters evading pre-entry detection, though cumulative model runs through mid-May reinforce negligible odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$7,235Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system currently lists zero near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst in 2026, anchoring the strong trader consensus behind an implied 91.8 percent probability of no such event. Ongoing optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey, supplemented by infrared capabilities from the NEO Surveyor mission, have cataloged all known candidates above roughly 30 meters with high completeness, while historical records show impacts of this scale occur only once every few decades on average. The modest residual uncertainty stems from the possibility of a fast-moving, undetected bolide under 30 meters evading pre-entry detection, though cumulative model runs through mid-May reinforce negligible odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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