NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA risk lists show no known near-Earth asteroids on collision trajectories in 2026 capable of releasing 100 kilotons TNT or more, with all catalogued objects either too small or missing Earth by safe margins. Historical bolide data indicate such airbursts occur roughly once every 50–100 years on average, yielding an annual base rate near 1–2 percent that aligns with the market’s 96.6 percent “No” consensus. Ongoing surveys continue to detect only meter-scale objects producing sub-kiloton events, while planetary-defense monitoring has eliminated significant 2026 threats. The main residual uncertainty stems from any still-undetected small impactor, though improved detection makes a surprise 100kt event increasingly improbable before year-end.