Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93% implied probability to "No" for Pluto's reclassification as a planet by June 30, reflecting the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) enduring 2006 definition, which requires a body to orbit the Sun, achieve hydrostatic equilibrium, and clear its orbital neighborhood—criteria Pluto fails due to shared Kuiper Belt objects. Recent advocacy by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, who in late April 2026 voiced support for revisiting the status during a Senate hearing, has revived public debate but holds no authority, as only the IAU can amend classifications via its General Assembly process, with no meetings or proposals scheduled before the deadline. Scenarios challenging this include an unprecedented IAU emergency resolution, though historical precedents show such changes require years of deliberation.