**Only two Starship launches have reached space in 2026 so far**, both successful V3 suborbital flights in May and July that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated in-space engine relights, leaving the market split closely between <5 (39.5%) and 5-6 (46.5%). Traders see the slow cadence as the core constraint, with persistent booster relight issues, FAA airspace approvals, and the shift to full orbital profiles on Flight 14 (targeted for September 22) creating uncertainty about how quickly SpaceX can scale. Recent hardware fixes on the Super Heavy and expanded FAA operating envelopes provide upside for additional flights in Q4, yet infrastructure limits, tower-catch preparations, and typical test-flight iteration timelines cap aggressive ramp expectations. The outcome hinges on whether orbital success unlocks a faster cadence before year-end or if regulatory and technical gates keep the total near the current pace.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?
Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?
5-6 47%
<5 42%
7-8 5.6%
11-12 1.7%
$513,130 Vol.
$513,130 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
<5
39%
5-6
47%
7-8
6%
9-10
<1%
11-12
2%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 47%
<5 42%
7-8 5.6%
11-12 1.7%
$513,130 Vol.
$513,130 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
<5
$102,744 Vol.
39%
5-6
$117,333 Vol.
47%
7-8
$161,650 Vol.
6%
9-10
$63,394 Vol.
<1%
11-12
$10,325 Vol.
2%
13-14
$11,020 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$32,047 Vol.
<1%
>16
$14,618 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Only two Starship launches have reached space in 2026 so far**, both successful V3 suborbital flights in May and July that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated in-space engine relights, leaving the market split closely between <5 (39.5%) and 5-6 (46.5%). Traders see the slow cadence as the core constraint, with persistent booster relight issues, FAA airspace approvals, and the shift to full orbital profiles on Flight 14 (targeted for September 22) creating uncertainty about how quickly SpaceX can scale. Recent hardware fixes on the Super Heavy and expanded FAA operating envelopes provide upside for additional flights in Q4, yet infrastructure limits, tower-catch preparations, and typical test-flight iteration timelines cap aggressive ramp expectations. The outcome hinges on whether orbital success unlocks a faster cadence before year-end or if regulatory and technical gates keep the total near the current pace.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$513,130Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Only two Starship launches have reached space in 2026 so far**, both successful V3 suborbital flights in May and July that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated in-space engine relights, leaving the market split closely between <5 (39.5%) and 5-6 (46.5%). Traders see the slow cadence as the core constraint, with persistent booster relight issues, FAA airspace approvals, and the shift to full orbital profiles on Flight 14 (targeted for September 22) creating uncertainty about how quickly SpaceX can scale. Recent hardware fixes on the Super Heavy and expanded FAA operating envelopes provide upside for additional flights in Q4, yet infrastructure limits, tower-catch preparations, and typical test-flight iteration timelines cap aggressive ramp expectations. The outcome hinges on whether orbital success unlocks a faster cadence before year-end or if regulatory and technical gates keep the total near the current pace.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$513,130Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...**Only two Starship launches have reached space in 2026 so far**, both successful V3 suborbital flights in May and July that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated in-space engine relights, leaving the market split closely between <5 (39.5%) and 5-6 (46.5%). Traders see the slow cadence as the core constraint, with persistent booster relight issues, FAA airspace approvals, and the shift to full orbital profiles on Flight 14 (targeted for September 22) creating uncertainty about how quickly SpaceX can scale. Recent hardware fixes on the Super Heavy and expanded FAA operating envelopes provide upside for additional flights in Q4, yet infrastructure limits, tower-catch preparations, and typical test-flight iteration timelines cap aggressive ramp expectations. The outcome hinges on whether orbital success unlocks a faster cadence before year-end or if regulatory and technical gates keep the total near the current pace.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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