SpaceX's measured Starship testing cadence, with just two V3 flights completed through mid-September 2026, anchors trader expectations around five or six total launches reaching space this year. Flight 13 in July successfully deployed production Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated an in-space Raptor relight, yet the booster suffered a hard splashdown after engine-relight issues. The upcoming Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 with FAA clearance, marks the first orbital attempt at roughly 275 km altitude and six orbits while carrying 26 operational V3 satellites, following hardware fixes for ice clogging and heat-shield upgrades. Remaining regulatory approvals, booster recovery challenges, and the absence of rapid-reuse infrastructure continue to constrain higher flight rates before year-end, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered on modest totals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?
Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?
5-6 47%
<5 42%
7-8 5.6%
11-12 1.7%
$513,130 Vol.
$513,130 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
<5
40%
5-6
47%
7-8
6%
9-10
<1%
11-12
2%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 47%
<5 42%
7-8 5.6%
11-12 1.7%
$513,130 Vol.
$513,130 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
<5
$102,744 Vol.
40%
5-6
$117,333 Vol.
47%
7-8
$161,650 Vol.
6%
9-10
$63,394 Vol.
<1%
11-12
$10,325 Vol.
2%
13-14
$11,020 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$32,047 Vol.
<1%
>16
$14,618 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's measured Starship testing cadence, with just two V3 flights completed through mid-September 2026, anchors trader expectations around five or six total launches reaching space this year. Flight 13 in July successfully deployed production Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated an in-space Raptor relight, yet the booster suffered a hard splashdown after engine-relight issues. The upcoming Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 with FAA clearance, marks the first orbital attempt at roughly 275 km altitude and six orbits while carrying 26 operational V3 satellites, following hardware fixes for ice clogging and heat-shield upgrades. Remaining regulatory approvals, booster recovery challenges, and the absence of rapid-reuse infrastructure continue to constrain higher flight rates before year-end, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered on modest totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$513,130Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's measured Starship testing cadence, with just two V3 flights completed through mid-September 2026, anchors trader expectations around five or six total launches reaching space this year. Flight 13 in July successfully deployed production Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated an in-space Raptor relight, yet the booster suffered a hard splashdown after engine-relight issues. The upcoming Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 with FAA clearance, marks the first orbital attempt at roughly 275 km altitude and six orbits while carrying 26 operational V3 satellites, following hardware fixes for ice clogging and heat-shield upgrades. Remaining regulatory approvals, booster recovery challenges, and the absence of rapid-reuse infrastructure continue to constrain higher flight rates before year-end, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered on modest totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$513,130Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's measured Starship testing cadence, with just two V3 flights completed through mid-September 2026, anchors trader expectations around five or six total launches reaching space this year. Flight 13 in July successfully deployed production Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated an in-space Raptor relight, yet the booster suffered a hard splashdown after engine-relight issues. The upcoming Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 with FAA clearance, marks the first orbital attempt at roughly 275 km altitude and six orbits while carrying 26 operational V3 satellites, following hardware fixes for ice clogging and heat-shield upgrades. Remaining regulatory approvals, booster recovery challenges, and the absence of rapid-reuse infrastructure continue to constrain higher flight rates before year-end, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered on modest totals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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