SpaceX Starship’s 2026 launch cadence remains constrained by FAA licensing reviews, iterative hardware fixes, and the shift from suborbital tests to sustained orbital profiles, keeping trader focus on a modest total. Only two successful flights have occurred year-to-date—Flights 12 and 13—both reaching space with improved V3 hardware and Starlink V3 deployments, though the booster on Flight 13 experienced engine relight issues. Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 pending final approval, marks the program’s first orbital attempt with a 10-hour, six-orbit profile and operational satellite payload, a key near-term catalyst. Expanded Pacific splashdown zones and license modifications support higher activity, yet tower catches, reliability thresholds, and infrastructure build-out limit rapid scaling before year-end. Market pricing around 5-6 launches reflects this balance of demonstrated progress against persistent regulatory and engineering gates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?
Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?
5-6 47%
<5 42%
7-8 6.0%
11-12 1.6%
$513,130 Vol.
$513,130 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
<5
37%
5-6
47%
7-8
6%
9-10
<1%
11-12
2%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 47%
<5 42%
7-8 6.0%
11-12 1.6%
$513,130 Vol.
$513,130 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
<5
$102,744 Vol.
37%
5-6
$117,333 Vol.
47%
7-8
$161,650 Vol.
6%
9-10
$63,394 Vol.
<1%
11-12
$10,325 Vol.
2%
13-14
$11,020 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$32,047 Vol.
<1%
>16
$14,618 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX Starship’s 2026 launch cadence remains constrained by FAA licensing reviews, iterative hardware fixes, and the shift from suborbital tests to sustained orbital profiles, keeping trader focus on a modest total. Only two successful flights have occurred year-to-date—Flights 12 and 13—both reaching space with improved V3 hardware and Starlink V3 deployments, though the booster on Flight 13 experienced engine relight issues. Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 pending final approval, marks the program’s first orbital attempt with a 10-hour, six-orbit profile and operational satellite payload, a key near-term catalyst. Expanded Pacific splashdown zones and license modifications support higher activity, yet tower catches, reliability thresholds, and infrastructure build-out limit rapid scaling before year-end. Market pricing around 5-6 launches reflects this balance of demonstrated progress against persistent regulatory and engineering gates.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$513,130Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX Starship’s 2026 launch cadence remains constrained by FAA licensing reviews, iterative hardware fixes, and the shift from suborbital tests to sustained orbital profiles, keeping trader focus on a modest total. Only two successful flights have occurred year-to-date—Flights 12 and 13—both reaching space with improved V3 hardware and Starlink V3 deployments, though the booster on Flight 13 experienced engine relight issues. Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 pending final approval, marks the program’s first orbital attempt with a 10-hour, six-orbit profile and operational satellite payload, a key near-term catalyst. Expanded Pacific splashdown zones and license modifications support higher activity, yet tower catches, reliability thresholds, and infrastructure build-out limit rapid scaling before year-end. Market pricing around 5-6 launches reflects this balance of demonstrated progress against persistent regulatory and engineering gates.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$513,130Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX Starship’s 2026 launch cadence remains constrained by FAA licensing reviews, iterative hardware fixes, and the shift from suborbital tests to sustained orbital profiles, keeping trader focus on a modest total. Only two successful flights have occurred year-to-date—Flights 12 and 13—both reaching space with improved V3 hardware and Starlink V3 deployments, though the booster on Flight 13 experienced engine relight issues. Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 pending final approval, marks the program’s first orbital attempt with a 10-hour, six-orbit profile and operational satellite payload, a key near-term catalyst. Expanded Pacific splashdown zones and license modifications support higher activity, yet tower catches, reliability thresholds, and infrastructure build-out limit rapid scaling before year-end. Market pricing around 5-6 launches reflects this balance of demonstrated progress against persistent regulatory and engineering gates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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