SpaceX’s confidential SEC filing and repeated reports of a targeted June 2026 IPO at valuations between $1.5 trillion and more than $2 trillion have anchored trader expectations that the company will close its first trading day above $1 trillion. Private-market share sales have already climbed past $800 billion and recently breached $1 trillion, reflecting accelerating Starlink subscriber growth and revenue that analysts now project above $20 billion annually. The dominant 93.5 percent probability for a 1T-plus outcome also incorporates Starship’s expanding flight cadence and SpaceX’s expanding role in national-security launches. Realistic challenges to this consensus include a sudden regulatory delay, weaker-than-expected Starlink margins, or a broad equity-market correction that forces a lower offering price.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1T+ 94%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2028 1.4%
800 milliards–900 milliards 1.3%
700 Md–800 Md 1.0%
$3,412,653 Vol.
$3,412,653 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
<500B
<1%
500 Md$–600 Md$
<1%
600 Md$–700 Md$
<1%
700 Md–800 Md
1%
800 milliards–900 milliards
1%
900B–1T
1%
1T+
94%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2028
1%
1T+ 94%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2028 1.4%
800 milliards–900 milliards 1.3%
700 Md–800 Md 1.0%
$3,412,653 Vol.
$3,412,653 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
<500B
$374,536 Vol.
<1%
500 Md$–600 Md$
$319,935 Vol.
<1%
600 Md$–700 Md$
$292,413 Vol.
<1%
700 Md–800 Md
$331,555 Vol.
1%
800 milliards–900 milliards
$481,987 Vol.
1%
900B–1T
$418,715 Vol.
1%
1T+
$602,589 Vol.
94%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2028
$590,922 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX’s confidential SEC filing and repeated reports of a targeted June 2026 IPO at valuations between $1.5 trillion and more than $2 trillion have anchored trader expectations that the company will close its first trading day above $1 trillion. Private-market share sales have already climbed past $800 billion and recently breached $1 trillion, reflecting accelerating Starlink subscriber growth and revenue that analysts now project above $20 billion annually. The dominant 93.5 percent probability for a 1T-plus outcome also incorporates Starship’s expanding flight cadence and SpaceX’s expanding role in national-security launches. Realistic challenges to this consensus include a sudden regulatory delay, weaker-than-expected Starlink margins, or a broad equity-market correction that forces a lower offering price.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,412,653Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX’s confidential SEC filing and repeated reports of a targeted June 2026 IPO at valuations between $1.5 trillion and more than $2 trillion have anchored trader expectations that the company will close its first trading day above $1 trillion. Private-market share sales have already climbed past $800 billion and recently breached $1 trillion, reflecting accelerating Starlink subscriber growth and revenue that analysts now project above $20 billion annually. The dominant 93.5 percent probability for a 1T-plus outcome also incorporates Starship’s expanding flight cadence and SpaceX’s expanding role in national-security launches. Realistic challenges to this consensus include a sudden regulatory delay, weaker-than-expected Starlink margins, or a broad equity-market correction that forces a lower offering price.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$3,412,653Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s confidential SEC filing and repeated reports of a targeted June 2026 IPO at valuations between $1.5 trillion and more than $2 trillion have anchored trader expectations that the company will close its first trading day above $1 trillion. Private-market share sales have already climbed past $800 billion and recently breached $1 trillion, reflecting accelerating Starlink subscriber growth and revenue that analysts now project above $20 billion annually. The dominant 93.5 percent probability for a 1T-plus outcome also incorporates Starship’s expanding flight cadence and SpaceX’s expanding role in national-security launches. Realistic challenges to this consensus include a sudden regulatory delay, weaker-than-expected Starlink margins, or a broad equity-market correction that forces a lower offering price.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes