Traders have coalesced around a 91.5% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by leaks surfacing around May 5 showing Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app's model selector and iOS builds, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash update. This aligns with Google I/O's kickoff that day (May 19-20), where historical precedent favors major AI announcements like Gemini 3's November 2025 debut, bolstering competitive positioning against rivals like OpenAI's GPT series. Sentiment reflects aggregated capital betting on demonstrated progress in reasoning and tool-calling benchmarks from Gemini 3.1. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical delays, a pivot to Gemini 3.5 naming, or announcement without immediate availability, as seen in prior experimental rollouts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMay 19 92%
May 20 3.4%
May 22 1.6%
May 18 1.3%
$175,811 Vol.
$175,811 Vol.
31 mai 2026
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
1%
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
1%
May 18
1%
May 19
92%
May 20
3%
May 21
1%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
1%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 92%
May 20 3.4%
May 22 1.6%
May 18 1.3%
$175,811 Vol.
$175,811 Vol.
31 mai 2026
May 12
$7,718 Vol.
<1%
May 13
$3,363 Vol.
<1%
May 14
$3,765 Vol.
1%
May 15
$6,881 Vol.
<1%
May 16
$5,577 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$6,343 Vol.
1%
May 18
$16,029 Vol.
1%
May 19
$45,377 Vol.
92%
May 20
$11,690 Vol.
3%
May 21
$7,129 Vol.
1%
May 22
$9,133 Vol.
2%
May 23
$3,069 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$3,950 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$2,127 Vol.
1%
May 26
$2,787 Vol.
1%
May 27
$2,325 Vol.
1%
May 28
$2,001 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$1,595 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$3,689 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$3,568 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$8,943 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders have coalesced around a 91.5% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by leaks surfacing around May 5 showing Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app's model selector and iOS builds, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash update. This aligns with Google I/O's kickoff that day (May 19-20), where historical precedent favors major AI announcements like Gemini 3's November 2025 debut, bolstering competitive positioning against rivals like OpenAI's GPT series. Sentiment reflects aggregated capital betting on demonstrated progress in reasoning and tool-calling benchmarks from Gemini 3.1. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical delays, a pivot to Gemini 3.5 naming, or announcement without immediate availability, as seen in prior experimental rollouts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$175,811Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders have coalesced around a 91.5% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by leaks surfacing around May 5 showing Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app's model selector and iOS builds, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash update. This aligns with Google I/O's kickoff that day (May 19-20), where historical precedent favors major AI announcements like Gemini 3's November 2025 debut, bolstering competitive positioning against rivals like OpenAI's GPT series. Sentiment reflects aggregated capital betting on demonstrated progress in reasoning and tool-calling benchmarks from Gemini 3.1. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical delays, a pivot to Gemini 3.5 naming, or announcement without immediate availability, as seen in prior experimental rollouts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$175,811Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have coalesced around a 91.5% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by leaks surfacing around May 5 showing Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app's model selector and iOS builds, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash update. This aligns with Google I/O's kickoff that day (May 19-20), where historical precedent favors major AI announcements like Gemini 3's November 2025 debut, bolstering competitive positioning against rivals like OpenAI's GPT series. Sentiment reflects aggregated capital betting on demonstrated progress in reasoning and tool-calling benchmarks from Gemini 3.1. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical delays, a pivot to Gemini 3.5 naming, or announcement without immediate availability, as seen in prior experimental rollouts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes