Traders have assigned overwhelming implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model by the end of May, reflecting its recent advancements in large language model performance on rigorous benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and safety alignment. These demonstrated capabilities have strengthened its competitive edge over rivals like Google and OpenAI in the current landscape of artificial intelligence development. Market participants appear to view the company’s steady progress and focus on reliable outputs as decisive factors in the short window remaining. Still, a surprise model release or benchmark shift from another lab could narrow the gap before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 93%
Google 8%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,703,762 Vol.
$8,703,762 Vol.

Anthropic
93%

8%

OpenAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 93%
Google 8%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,703,762 Vol.
$8,703,762 Vol.

Anthropic
93%

8%

OpenAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have assigned overwhelming implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model by the end of May, reflecting its recent advancements in large language model performance on rigorous benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and safety alignment. These demonstrated capabilities have strengthened its competitive edge over rivals like Google and OpenAI in the current landscape of artificial intelligence development. Market participants appear to view the company’s steady progress and focus on reliable outputs as decisive factors in the short window remaining. Still, a surprise model release or benchmark shift from another lab could narrow the gap before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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