The primary driver of current trader sentiment around Anthropic’s supply-chain risk designation is the ongoing federal court battle that began after the company refused Pentagon demands to remove safeguards in its Claude large language model preventing mass domestic surveillance and lethal autonomous weapons. That refusal triggered the March 2026 labeling under 41 U.S.C. § 4713 and 10 U.S.C. § 3252, effectively blacklisting Anthropic from most federal contracts while the Pentagon expanded classified AI access to OpenAI, Google, and xAI. A California district court issued a preliminary injunction in late March, but the Ninth Circuit and D.C. Circuit appeals remain unresolved, leaving the broader statutory bar intact. Traders are watching for any appellate ruling, settlement announcement, or congressional intervention before the market’s June resolution window, as those developments would most directly shift the odds on whether the designation is formally rescinded.