Figure AI’s ongoing livestream endurance test of its F.03 humanoid robots has become the main driver behind the 64.5% implied probability for 200-plus hours of continuous failure-free operation. The test began as a planned eight-hour autonomous package-sorting shift using the Helix-02 large language model for pixel-based reasoning at near-human speeds but extended past 50 hours with zero interventions after the robots demonstrated fault-tolerant recovery via the Vulcan controller. April’s 24-fold production ramp to one robot per hour has supplied extensive stress-test data exceeding 1,250 cumulative runtime hours, reinforcing mean-time-between-failures expectations. Remaining uncertainty centers on gripper wear and periodic battery swaps, keeping the 100–200-hour and 50–100-hour brackets at 20.5% and 17.0% ahead of the May 21 resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour200h+ 66%
100-200h 21%
50-100h 17%
$66,419 Vol.
$66,419 Vol.
21 mai 2026
50-100h
17%
100-200h
21%
200h+
66%
200h+ 66%
100-200h 21%
50-100h 17%
$66,419 Vol.
$66,419 Vol.
21 mai 2026
50-100h
$3,380 Vol.
17%
100-200h
$2,452 Vol.
21%
200h+
$8,782 Vol.
66%
Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Figure AI’s ongoing livestream endurance test of its F.03 humanoid robots has become the main driver behind the 64.5% implied probability for 200-plus hours of continuous failure-free operation. The test began as a planned eight-hour autonomous package-sorting shift using the Helix-02 large language model for pixel-based reasoning at near-human speeds but extended past 50 hours with zero interventions after the robots demonstrated fault-tolerant recovery via the Vulcan controller. April’s 24-fold production ramp to one robot per hour has supplied extensive stress-test data exceeding 1,250 cumulative runtime hours, reinforcing mean-time-between-failures expectations. Remaining uncertainty centers on gripper wear and periodic battery swaps, keeping the 100–200-hour and 50–100-hour brackets at 20.5% and 17.0% ahead of the May 21 resolution.
Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 13, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$66,419Date de fin
21 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Figure AI’s ongoing livestream endurance test of its F.03 humanoid robots has become the main driver behind the 64.5% implied probability for 200-plus hours of continuous failure-free operation. The test began as a planned eight-hour autonomous package-sorting shift using the Helix-02 large language model for pixel-based reasoning at near-human speeds but extended past 50 hours with zero interventions after the robots demonstrated fault-tolerant recovery via the Vulcan controller. April’s 24-fold production ramp to one robot per hour has supplied extensive stress-test data exceeding 1,250 cumulative runtime hours, reinforcing mean-time-between-failures expectations. Remaining uncertainty centers on gripper wear and periodic battery swaps, keeping the 100–200-hour and 50–100-hour brackets at 20.5% and 17.0% ahead of the May 21 resolution.
Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$66,419Date de fin
21 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Figure AI’s ongoing livestream endurance test of its F.03 humanoid robots has become the main driver behind the 64.5% implied probability for 200-plus hours of continuous failure-free operation. The test began as a planned eight-hour autonomous package-sorting shift using the Helix-02 large language model for pixel-based reasoning at near-human speeds but extended past 50 hours with zero interventions after the robots demonstrated fault-tolerant recovery via the Vulcan controller. April’s 24-fold production ramp to one robot per hour has supplied extensive stress-test data exceeding 1,250 cumulative runtime hours, reinforcing mean-time-between-failures expectations. Remaining uncertainty centers on gripper wear and periodic battery swaps, keeping the 100–200-hour and 50–100-hour brackets at 20.5% and 17.0% ahead of the May 21 resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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