The low odds for a major meteor strike in 2026 stem primarily from the extreme rarity of impacts exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent, events that historically occur on multi-century timescales based on global detection records. NASA's ongoing surveys and the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies show no qualifying near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year, with recent close approaches like 2026 JH2 confirming zero impact risk despite heightened fireball activity earlier in 2026. Monitoring networks continue to track smaller undetected objects, but their typical yields remain well below the threshold, reinforcing trader consensus around the absence of any qualifying event by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCoup de météore majeur (10kt+) en 2026 ?
Coup de météore majeur (10kt+) en 2026 ?
Oui
$153,447 Vol.
$153,447 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$153,447 Vol.
$153,447 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The low odds for a major meteor strike in 2026 stem primarily from the extreme rarity of impacts exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent, events that historically occur on multi-century timescales based on global detection records. NASA's ongoing surveys and the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies show no qualifying near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year, with recent close approaches like 2026 JH2 confirming zero impact risk despite heightened fireball activity earlier in 2026. Monitoring networks continue to track smaller undetected objects, but their typical yields remain well below the threshold, reinforcing trader consensus around the absence of any qualifying event by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$153,447Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The low odds for a major meteor strike in 2026 stem primarily from the extreme rarity of impacts exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent, events that historically occur on multi-century timescales based on global detection records. NASA's ongoing surveys and the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies show no qualifying near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year, with recent close approaches like 2026 JH2 confirming zero impact risk despite heightened fireball activity earlier in 2026. Monitoring networks continue to track smaller undetected objects, but their typical yields remain well below the threshold, reinforcing trader consensus around the absence of any qualifying event by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$153,447Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The low odds for a major meteor strike in 2026 stem primarily from the extreme rarity of impacts exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent, events that historically occur on multi-century timescales based on global detection records. NASA's ongoing surveys and the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies show no qualifying near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year, with recent close approaches like 2026 JH2 confirming zero impact risk despite heightened fireball activity earlier in 2026. Monitoring networks continue to track smaller undetected objects, but their typical yields remain well below the threshold, reinforcing trader consensus around the absence of any qualifying event by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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