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icon for Quand le prochain ouragan se formera-t-il dans le Pacifique ?
Climat Et Science·Climat

Quand le prochain ouragan se formera-t-il dans le Pacifique ?

icon for Quand le prochain ouragan se formera-t-il dans le Pacifique ?
Climat Et Science·Climat

Quand le prochain ouragan se formera-t-il dans le Pacifique ?

13 août au 16 août 2026 61%

27 août au 31 août 2026 29%

22 août au 26 août 2026 7%

Aucun ouragan du Pacifique ne se formera en août 2026 2%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

13 août au 16 août 2026 61%

27 août au 31 août 2026 29%

22 août au 26 août 2026 7%

Aucun ouragan du Pacifique ne se formera en août 2026 2%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

13 août au 16 août 2026

$270 Vol.

77%

17 au 21 août 2026

$75 Vol.

32%

22 août au 26 août 2026

$75 Vol.

7%

27 août au 31 août 2026

$115 Vol.

16%

Aucun ouragan du Pacifique ne se formera en août 2026

$102 Vol.

2%

This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpacRecent National Hurricane Center monitoring shows Tropical Storm Lala in the central Pacific, designated around August 13 and positioned for likely intensification into a hurricane within days amid favorable sea surface temperatures and reduced wind shear during the seasonal peak. Official guidance highlights this system’s organization and steering patterns that support rapid strengthening before mid-August, aligning with the dominant market-implied odds for formation in the August 13–16 window. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Hernan is forecast to weaken without reaching hurricane thresholds. Broader basin conditions, including above-average early activity following Genevieve, reinforce trader consensus on near-term development while underscoring forecast uncertainty from evolving model runs and steering influences.

This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".

A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.

The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.

The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
Volume
$637
Date de fin
1 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 11:19 AM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpacRecent National Hurricane Center monitoring shows Tropical Storm Lala in the central Pacific, designated around August 13 and positioned for likely intensification into a hurricane within days amid favorable sea surface temperatures and reduced wind shear during the seasonal peak. Official guidance highlights this system’s organization and steering patterns that support rapid strengthening before mid-August, aligning with the dominant market-implied odds for formation in the August 13–16 window. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Hernan is forecast to weaken without reaching hurricane thresholds. Broader basin conditions, including above-average early activity following Genevieve, reinforce trader consensus on near-term development while underscoring forecast uncertainty from evolving model runs and steering influences.

This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".

A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.

The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.

The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
Volume
$637
Date de fin
1 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 11:19 AM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac

Connexes

icon for Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera-t-il en août 2026 ?

Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera-t-il en août 2026 ?

52%
Oui
icon for Le nom du premier ouragan de la saison des ouragans 2026 dans l’Atlantique sera-t-il Dolly ?

Le nom du premier ouragan de la saison des ouragans 2026 dans l’Atlantique sera-t-il Dolly ?

42%
Oui
icon for Un ouragan touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis en août ?

Un ouragan touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis en août ?

14%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Quand le prochain ouragan se formera-t-il dans le Pacifique ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 13 août au 16 août 2026 » à 77%, suivi de « 17 au 21 août 2026 » à 32%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 77¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 77% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Quand le prochain ouragan se formera-t-il dans le Pacifique ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 12, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Quand le prochain ouragan se formera-t-il dans le Pacifique ? », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Quand le prochain ouragan se formera-t-il dans le Pacifique ? » est « 13 août au 16 août 2026 » à 77%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 77% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 17 au 21 août 2026 » à 32%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Quand le prochain ouragan se formera-t-il dans le Pacifique ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.