Recent seismic activity from the USGS catalog shows multiple magnitude 6.0+ events in August 2026, including a 7.7 near Ende, Indonesia, a 6.9 in the same region, and a 6.7 near Tambo, Peru, reflecting typical patterns along subduction zones and the Pacific Ring of Fire. Short-term probabilities hinge on background rates in high-hazard areas such as Indonesia, the Andes, and the Philippines, where tectonic plate convergence drives frequent events above M6.0. With only ten days until the end of August, traders should note that precise short-term forecasts remain limited, though ongoing aftershock sequences or new USGS real-time alerts could shift regional odds if fresh data emerges from monitoring networks. Historical global averages indicate several M6+ quakes occur monthly, underscoring the market's sensitivity to any late-month activity in active fault systems.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOù un tremblement de terre de 6,0 + se produira-t-il d'ici la fin du mois d'août ?
Où un tremblement de terre de 6,0 + se produira-t-il d'ici la fin du mois d'août ?
$11,914 Vol.
3 sept. 2026
Indonésie
98%
Pérou
98%
Philippines
43%
États-Unis
28%
Chili
25%
Mexique
14%
Japon
50%
$11,914 Vol.
Indonésie
$5,997 Vol.
98%
Pérou
$563 Vol.
98%
Philippines
$2,741 Vol.
43%
États-Unis
$1,420 Vol.
28%
Chili
$144 Vol.
25%
Mexique
$440 Vol.
14%
Japon
$609 Vol.
50%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic activity from the USGS catalog shows multiple magnitude 6.0+ events in August 2026, including a 7.7 near Ende, Indonesia, a 6.9 in the same region, and a 6.7 near Tambo, Peru, reflecting typical patterns along subduction zones and the Pacific Ring of Fire. Short-term probabilities hinge on background rates in high-hazard areas such as Indonesia, the Andes, and the Philippines, where tectonic plate convergence drives frequent events above M6.0. With only ten days until the end of August, traders should note that precise short-term forecasts remain limited, though ongoing aftershock sequences or new USGS real-time alerts could shift regional odds if fresh data emerges from monitoring networks. Historical global averages indicate several M6+ quakes occur monthly, underscoring the market's sensitivity to any late-month activity in active fault systems.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$11,914Date de fin
3 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic activity from the USGS catalog shows multiple magnitude 6.0+ events in August 2026, including a 7.7 near Ende, Indonesia, a 6.9 in the same region, and a 6.7 near Tambo, Peru, reflecting typical patterns along subduction zones and the Pacific Ring of Fire. Short-term probabilities hinge on background rates in high-hazard areas such as Indonesia, the Andes, and the Philippines, where tectonic plate convergence drives frequent events above M6.0. With only ten days until the end of August, traders should note that precise short-term forecasts remain limited, though ongoing aftershock sequences or new USGS real-time alerts could shift regional odds if fresh data emerges from monitoring networks. Historical global averages indicate several M6+ quakes occur monthly, underscoring the market's sensitivity to any late-month activity in active fault systems.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Volume
$11,914Date de fin
3 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic activity from the USGS catalog shows multiple magnitude 6.0+ events in August 2026, including a 7.7 near Ende, Indonesia, a 6.9 in the same region, and a 6.7 near Tambo, Peru, reflecting typical patterns along subduction zones and the Pacific Ring of Fire. Short-term probabilities hinge on background rates in high-hazard areas such as Indonesia, the Andes, and the Philippines, where tectonic plate convergence drives frequent events above M6.0. With only ten days until the end of August, traders should note that precise short-term forecasts remain limited, though ongoing aftershock sequences or new USGS real-time alerts could shift regional odds if fresh data emerges from monitoring networks. Historical global averages indicate several M6+ quakes occur monthly, underscoring the market's sensitivity to any late-month activity in active fault systems.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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