Banxico’s decision to hold its benchmark rate at 6.50% in both its June and August 2026 meetings, following the conclusion of its easing cycle in May, underpins the 82% market-implied probability of no change at the November decision. Persistent core inflation near 4%, alongside upside risks from trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso depreciation, have kept the balance of risks tilted higher even as headline CPI moderates. Analyst consensus and forward guidance point to an extended pause through year-end, with modest GDP growth providing limited scope for further cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 27 quarterly report, September and October inflation prints, and any shifts in U.S. monetary policy that could influence the peso and domestic rate path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPas de changement 82%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 6.2%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base 5.6%
Baisse de 25 points de base 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 nov. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
6%
Baisse de 25 points de base
5%
Pas de changement
82%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
6%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
7%
Pas de changement 82%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 6.2%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base 5.6%
Baisse de 25 points de base 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 nov. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$93 Vol.
6%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$75 Vol.
5%
Pas de changement
$2,046 Vol.
82%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
$162 Vol.
6%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
$71 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s decision to hold its benchmark rate at 6.50% in both its June and August 2026 meetings, following the conclusion of its easing cycle in May, underpins the 82% market-implied probability of no change at the November decision. Persistent core inflation near 4%, alongside upside risks from trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso depreciation, have kept the balance of risks tilted higher even as headline CPI moderates. Analyst consensus and forward guidance point to an extended pause through year-end, with modest GDP growth providing limited scope for further cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 27 quarterly report, September and October inflation prints, and any shifts in U.S. monetary policy that could influence the peso and domestic rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$2,447Date de fin
5 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s decision to hold its benchmark rate at 6.50% in both its June and August 2026 meetings, following the conclusion of its easing cycle in May, underpins the 82% market-implied probability of no change at the November decision. Persistent core inflation near 4%, alongside upside risks from trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso depreciation, have kept the balance of risks tilted higher even as headline CPI moderates. Analyst consensus and forward guidance point to an extended pause through year-end, with modest GDP growth providing limited scope for further cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 27 quarterly report, September and October inflation prints, and any shifts in U.S. monetary policy that could influence the peso and domestic rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$2,447Date de fin
5 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...Banxico’s decision to hold its benchmark rate at 6.50% in both its June and August 2026 meetings, following the conclusion of its easing cycle in May, underpins the 82% market-implied probability of no change at the November decision. Persistent core inflation near 4%, alongside upside risks from trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso depreciation, have kept the balance of risks tilted higher even as headline CPI moderates. Analyst consensus and forward guidance point to an extended pause through year-end, with modest GDP growth providing limited scope for further cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 27 quarterly report, September and October inflation prints, and any shifts in U.S. monetary policy that could influence the peso and domestic rate path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Pas de changement dans les taux d'intérêt de la Banque du Mexique après la réunion de septembre 2026 ?
96%
Oui
La Banque du Brésil ne changera-t-elle pas l'objectif du taux Selic lors de la réunion de novembre ?
47%
Oui
La Banque du Canada ne modifiera-t-elle pas le taux cible du financement à un jour lors de l’annonce des taux d’intérêt d’octobre ?
85%
Oui
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