Claudia Sheinbaum maintains a firm grip on Mexico’s presidency through her Morena party’s supermajority in Congress, which blocks impeachment and limits opposition leverage during her fixed six-year term ending in 2030. Her approval ratings near 78 percent reflect continued public support for social programs and economic initiatives such as Plan México infrastructure projects and targeted tariff adjustments ahead of the 2026 USMCA review. A March 2026 legislative defeat on an electoral reform bill prompted her to outline a Plan B, but this has not eroded her overall position or sparked widespread calls for early removal. Recall mechanisms under discussion would not activate until 2027 or later, and no credible resignation signals or health issues have emerged. Traders therefore assign low probability to her departure before year-end 2026, viewing the constitutional structure and party control as the dominant stabilizing factors.