Banxico’s September 24 decision carries a 98.5% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% overnight target rate, reflecting the central bank’s unanimous holds in June and August after the easing cycle concluded in May. Inflation has moderated to 3.26% headline in August with core near 3.9%, supporting gradual convergence to the 3% target by late 2027, while economic activity rebounded in the second quarter amid persistent downside risks. The recent 25 basis point Fed hike narrowed the policy differential to roughly 250–275 basis points, yet analysts view this compression as manageable without prompting an immediate Banxico response, given peso stability near recent highs and the board’s emphasis on external uncertainties including trade policy and geopolitics. The same-day September inflation release and forward guidance will be the key near-term catalysts that could sustain or modestly shift the strong hold consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPas de changement 98.5%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 1.5%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$60,186 Vol.
$60,186 Vol.
24 sept. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement
99%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
2%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement 98.5%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 1.5%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$60,186 Vol.
$60,186 Vol.
24 sept. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$6,014 Vol.
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$14,478 Vol.
<1%
Pas de changement
$29,577 Vol.
99%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
$7,084 Vol.
2%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
$3,034 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s September 24 decision carries a 98.5% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% overnight target rate, reflecting the central bank’s unanimous holds in June and August after the easing cycle concluded in May. Inflation has moderated to 3.26% headline in August with core near 3.9%, supporting gradual convergence to the 3% target by late 2027, while economic activity rebounded in the second quarter amid persistent downside risks. The recent 25 basis point Fed hike narrowed the policy differential to roughly 250–275 basis points, yet analysts view this compression as manageable without prompting an immediate Banxico response, given peso stability near recent highs and the board’s emphasis on external uncertainties including trade policy and geopolitics. The same-day September inflation release and forward guidance will be the key near-term catalysts that could sustain or modestly shift the strong hold consensus.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$60,186Date de fin
24 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s September 24 decision carries a 98.5% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% overnight target rate, reflecting the central bank’s unanimous holds in June and August after the easing cycle concluded in May. Inflation has moderated to 3.26% headline in August with core near 3.9%, supporting gradual convergence to the 3% target by late 2027, while economic activity rebounded in the second quarter amid persistent downside risks. The recent 25 basis point Fed hike narrowed the policy differential to roughly 250–275 basis points, yet analysts view this compression as manageable without prompting an immediate Banxico response, given peso stability near recent highs and the board’s emphasis on external uncertainties including trade policy and geopolitics. The same-day September inflation release and forward guidance will be the key near-term catalysts that could sustain or modestly shift the strong hold consensus.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$60,186Date de fin
24 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Banxico’s September 24 decision carries a 98.5% market-implied probability of no change at the 6.50% overnight target rate, reflecting the central bank’s unanimous holds in June and August after the easing cycle concluded in May. Inflation has moderated to 3.26% headline in August with core near 3.9%, supporting gradual convergence to the 3% target by late 2027, while economic activity rebounded in the second quarter amid persistent downside risks. The recent 25 basis point Fed hike narrowed the policy differential to roughly 250–275 basis points, yet analysts view this compression as manageable without prompting an immediate Banxico response, given peso stability near recent highs and the board’s emphasis on external uncertainties including trade policy and geopolitics. The same-day September inflation release and forward guidance will be the key near-term catalysts that could sustain or modestly shift the strong hold consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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