The Central Bank of Colombia's decision to hold its benchmark rate steady at 12% on July 31 in a 4-3 split vote underpins the 81.5% implied probability of no change at the September 30 meeting. Annual inflation climbed to 6.1% in June with core measures near 6.0%, while end-2026 expectations rose to 6.6%, keeping policy firmly restrictive relative to the 3% target. Solid second-quarter growth, a 2.5% GDP forecast, and an 8.0% unemployment rate have reduced pressure for immediate easing or aggressive tightening. A stronger peso has tempered imported pressures, though geopolitical risks and potential El Niño effects maintain upside inflation risks. Traders price the data-dependent stance and limited new catalysts before September as favoring stability, with modest probabilities assigned to 25bp moves reflecting residual uncertainty around forthcoming inflation prints.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun changement 82%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 8.4%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base 7.0%
Baisse de 25 points de base 4.4%
$21,595 Vol.
$21,595 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
4%
Aucun changement
82%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
8%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
7%
Aucun changement 82%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 8.4%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base 7.0%
Baisse de 25 points de base 4.4%
$21,595 Vol.
$21,595 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$1,034 Vol.
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$794 Vol.
4%
Aucun changement
$9,257 Vol.
82%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
$8,719 Vol.
8%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
$1,792 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Central Bank of Colombia's decision to hold its benchmark rate steady at 12% on July 31 in a 4-3 split vote underpins the 81.5% implied probability of no change at the September 30 meeting. Annual inflation climbed to 6.1% in June with core measures near 6.0%, while end-2026 expectations rose to 6.6%, keeping policy firmly restrictive relative to the 3% target. Solid second-quarter growth, a 2.5% GDP forecast, and an 8.0% unemployment rate have reduced pressure for immediate easing or aggressive tightening. A stronger peso has tempered imported pressures, though geopolitical risks and potential El Niño effects maintain upside inflation risks. Traders price the data-dependent stance and limited new catalysts before September as favoring stability, with modest probabilities assigned to 25bp moves reflecting residual uncertainty around forthcoming inflation prints.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$21,595Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Central Bank of Colombia's decision to hold its benchmark rate steady at 12% on July 31 in a 4-3 split vote underpins the 81.5% implied probability of no change at the September 30 meeting. Annual inflation climbed to 6.1% in June with core measures near 6.0%, while end-2026 expectations rose to 6.6%, keeping policy firmly restrictive relative to the 3% target. Solid second-quarter growth, a 2.5% GDP forecast, and an 8.0% unemployment rate have reduced pressure for immediate easing or aggressive tightening. A stronger peso has tempered imported pressures, though geopolitical risks and potential El Niño effects maintain upside inflation risks. Traders price the data-dependent stance and limited new catalysts before September as favoring stability, with modest probabilities assigned to 25bp moves reflecting residual uncertainty around forthcoming inflation prints.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$21,595Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Central Bank of Colombia's decision to hold its benchmark rate steady at 12% on July 31 in a 4-3 split vote underpins the 81.5% implied probability of no change at the September 30 meeting. Annual inflation climbed to 6.1% in June with core measures near 6.0%, while end-2026 expectations rose to 6.6%, keeping policy firmly restrictive relative to the 3% target. Solid second-quarter growth, a 2.5% GDP forecast, and an 8.0% unemployment rate have reduced pressure for immediate easing or aggressive tightening. A stronger peso has tempered imported pressures, though geopolitical risks and potential El Niño effects maintain upside inflation risks. Traders price the data-dependent stance and limited new catalysts before September as favoring stability, with modest probabilities assigned to 25bp moves reflecting residual uncertainty around forthcoming inflation prints.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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