Recent July employment data, showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline against consensus expectations for an 80,000 gain along with sizable downward revisions to prior months, represents the dominant factor shaping trader positioning on the August unemployment rate. This softening in payroll growth, coupled with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent amid further labor-force contraction and a participation rate at 61.4 percent, has reinforced market-implied odds clustering around 4.1–4.2 percent. With those outcomes holding a combined 62.5 percent probability, participants appear to price in continued labor-market cooling while recognizing that month-to-month volatility in household-survey components and potential August hiring rebounds could still shift the realized figure. The September 4 release will resolve the contract amid ongoing focus on Federal Reserve policy signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4.1% 33%
4.2% 28%
4.3% 22%
4.0% 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
≤3.8%
2%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
19%
4.1%
33%
4.2%
28%
4.3%
22%
4.4%
6%
4.5%
3%
≥4.6%
2%
4.1% 33%
4.2% 28%
4.3% 22%
4.0% 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 sept. 2026
≤3.8%
$90 Vol.
2%
3.9%
$92 Vol.
1%
4.0%
$429 Vol.
19%
4.1%
$2,189 Vol.
33%
4.2%
$808 Vol.
28%
4.3%
$379 Vol.
22%
4.4%
$113 Vol.
6%
4.5%
$112 Vol.
3%
≥4.6%
$92 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July employment data, showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline against consensus expectations for an 80,000 gain along with sizable downward revisions to prior months, represents the dominant factor shaping trader positioning on the August unemployment rate. This softening in payroll growth, coupled with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent amid further labor-force contraction and a participation rate at 61.4 percent, has reinforced market-implied odds clustering around 4.1–4.2 percent. With those outcomes holding a combined 62.5 percent probability, participants appear to price in continued labor-market cooling while recognizing that month-to-month volatility in household-survey components and potential August hiring rebounds could still shift the realized figure. The September 4 release will resolve the contract amid ongoing focus on Federal Reserve policy signals.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volume
$4,304Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July employment data, showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline against consensus expectations for an 80,000 gain along with sizable downward revisions to prior months, represents the dominant factor shaping trader positioning on the August unemployment rate. This softening in payroll growth, coupled with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent amid further labor-force contraction and a participation rate at 61.4 percent, has reinforced market-implied odds clustering around 4.1–4.2 percent. With those outcomes holding a combined 62.5 percent probability, participants appear to price in continued labor-market cooling while recognizing that month-to-month volatility in household-survey components and potential August hiring rebounds could still shift the realized figure. The September 4 release will resolve the contract amid ongoing focus on Federal Reserve policy signals.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$4,304Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July employment data, showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline against consensus expectations for an 80,000 gain along with sizable downward revisions to prior months, represents the dominant factor shaping trader positioning on the August unemployment rate. This softening in payroll growth, coupled with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent amid further labor-force contraction and a participation rate at 61.4 percent, has reinforced market-implied odds clustering around 4.1–4.2 percent. With those outcomes holding a combined 62.5 percent probability, participants appear to price in continued labor-market cooling while recognizing that month-to-month volatility in household-survey components and potential August hiring rebounds could still shift the realized figure. The September 4 release will resolve the contract amid ongoing focus on Federal Reserve policy signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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