Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in June, reflecting a labor-force participation drop to 61.4 percent rather than broad hiring gains. This softening follows earlier 2026 readings near 4.4 percent and aligns with Fed officials monitoring the gap versus the 4.2 percent long-run NAIRU estimate in SEP projections. Traders assessing the 2026 peak focus on upcoming August data due September 4, potential FOMC signals on monetary policy easing, and whether slowing demand or further participation declines will push the rate higher before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$481,362 Vol.
10 janv. 2026
5,0 %
10%
5,5 %
8%
6,0 %
7%
7,0 %
7%
10,0 %
5%
$481,362 Vol.
5,0 %
$123,066 Vol.
10%
5,5 %
$200,575 Vol.
8%
6,0 %
$75,518 Vol.
7%
7,0 %
$31,207 Vol.
7%
10,0 %
$50,996 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in June, reflecting a labor-force participation drop to 61.4 percent rather than broad hiring gains. This softening follows earlier 2026 readings near 4.4 percent and aligns with Fed officials monitoring the gap versus the 4.2 percent long-run NAIRU estimate in SEP projections. Traders assessing the 2026 peak focus on upcoming August data due September 4, potential FOMC signals on monetary policy easing, and whether slowing demand or further participation declines will push the rate higher before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$481,362Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in June, reflecting a labor-force participation drop to 61.4 percent rather than broad hiring gains. This softening follows earlier 2026 readings near 4.4 percent and aligns with Fed officials monitoring the gap versus the 4.2 percent long-run NAIRU estimate in SEP projections. Traders assessing the 2026 peak focus on upcoming August data due September 4, potential FOMC signals on monetary policy easing, and whether slowing demand or further participation declines will push the rate higher before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$481,362Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in June, reflecting a labor-force participation drop to 61.4 percent rather than broad hiring gains. This softening follows earlier 2026 readings near 4.4 percent and aligns with Fed officials monitoring the gap versus the 4.2 percent long-run NAIRU estimate in SEP projections. Traders assessing the 2026 peak focus on upcoming August data due September 4, potential FOMC signals on monetary policy easing, and whether slowing demand or further participation declines will push the rate higher before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes