Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 75,000 per month amid slower hiring. Traders are focused on the interplay between monetary policy easing, subdued GDP growth near 1.8 percent, and structural shifts including reduced net migration and AI-driven productivity gains that could limit further job creation. Forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Indiana Business Research Center point to a potential rise toward 4.4–4.8 percent later in the year if hiring remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 2026 employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings, which will clarify whether current rate expectations align with a stable or softening labor market trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$388,622 Vol.
10 janv. 2026
5,0 %
28%
5,5 %
14%
6,0 %
13%
7,0 %
10%
10,0 %
4%
$388,622 Vol.
5,0 %
$102,277 Vol.
28%
5,5 %
$186,661 Vol.
14%
6,0 %
$52,180 Vol.
13%
7,0 %
$21,510 Vol.
10%
10,0 %
$25,993 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 75,000 per month amid slower hiring. Traders are focused on the interplay between monetary policy easing, subdued GDP growth near 1.8 percent, and structural shifts including reduced net migration and AI-driven productivity gains that could limit further job creation. Forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Indiana Business Research Center point to a potential rise toward 4.4–4.8 percent later in the year if hiring remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 2026 employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings, which will clarify whether current rate expectations align with a stable or softening labor market trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$388,622Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 75,000 per month amid slower hiring. Traders are focused on the interplay between monetary policy easing, subdued GDP growth near 1.8 percent, and structural shifts including reduced net migration and AI-driven productivity gains that could limit further job creation. Forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Indiana Business Research Center point to a potential rise toward 4.4–4.8 percent later in the year if hiring remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 2026 employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings, which will clarify whether current rate expectations align with a stable or softening labor market trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$388,622Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 75,000 per month amid slower hiring. Traders are focused on the interplay between monetary policy easing, subdued GDP growth near 1.8 percent, and structural shifts including reduced net migration and AI-driven productivity gains that could limit further job creation. Forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Indiana Business Research Center point to a potential rise toward 4.4–4.8 percent later in the year if hiring remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 2026 employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings, which will clarify whether current rate expectations align with a stable or softening labor market trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes