April's nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000—beating consensus estimates near 65,000 but underscoring labor market deceleration from March's revised 185,000 gain—has anchored trader consensus toward subdued May growth, with Polymarket implying a 50% probability of job losses amid rising initial jobless claims to 200,000 for the week ending May 2. Accelerating announced layoffs, per Challenger Gray data showing an 38% monthly jump to 83,000 in April driven by tech restructurings at firms like Coinbase and Cloudflare, amplify downside risks despite expansionary ISM manufacturing (52.7) and services (53.6) PMIs. Economist forecasts hover around 70,000, but skin-in-the-game traders price closely contested low buckets ahead of the June 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics release, a key Federal Open Market Committee input.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many jobs added in May?
How many jobs added in May?
100k – 150k 41%
200k+ 24%
150k – 200k 23%
<0 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 juin 2026
<0
18%
0 – 50k
13%
50k – 100k
17%
100k – 150k
43%
150k – 200k
23%
200k+
24%
100k – 150k 41%
200k+ 24%
150k – 200k 23%
<0 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 juin 2026
<0
$138 Vol.
18%
0 – 50k
$52 Vol.
13%
50k – 100k
$40 Vol.
17%
100k – 150k
$63 Vol.
43%
150k – 200k
$38 Vol.
23%
200k+
$38 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmApril's nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000—beating consensus estimates near 65,000 but underscoring labor market deceleration from March's revised 185,000 gain—has anchored trader consensus toward subdued May growth, with Polymarket implying a 50% probability of job losses amid rising initial jobless claims to 200,000 for the week ending May 2. Accelerating announced layoffs, per Challenger Gray data showing an 38% monthly jump to 83,000 in April driven by tech restructurings at firms like Coinbase and Cloudflare, amplify downside risks despite expansionary ISM manufacturing (52.7) and services (53.6) PMIs. Economist forecasts hover around 70,000, but skin-in-the-game traders price closely contested low buckets ahead of the June 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics release, a key Federal Open Market Committee input.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Marché ouvert : May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$369Date de fin
5 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmApril's nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000—beating consensus estimates near 65,000 but underscoring labor market deceleration from March's revised 185,000 gain—has anchored trader consensus toward subdued May growth, with Polymarket implying a 50% probability of job losses amid rising initial jobless claims to 200,000 for the week ending May 2. Accelerating announced layoffs, per Challenger Gray data showing an 38% monthly jump to 83,000 in April driven by tech restructurings at firms like Coinbase and Cloudflare, amplify downside risks despite expansionary ISM manufacturing (52.7) and services (53.6) PMIs. Economist forecasts hover around 70,000, but skin-in-the-game traders price closely contested low buckets ahead of the June 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics release, a key Federal Open Market Committee input.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$369Date de fin
5 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...April's nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000—beating consensus estimates near 65,000 but underscoring labor market deceleration from March's revised 185,000 gain—has anchored trader consensus toward subdued May growth, with Polymarket implying a 50% probability of job losses amid rising initial jobless claims to 200,000 for the week ending May 2. Accelerating announced layoffs, per Challenger Gray data showing an 38% monthly jump to 83,000 in April driven by tech restructurings at firms like Coinbase and Cloudflare, amplify downside risks despite expansionary ISM manufacturing (52.7) and services (53.6) PMIs. Economist forecasts hover around 70,000, but skin-in-the-game traders price closely contested low buckets ahead of the June 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics release, a key Federal Open Market Committee input.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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