Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.6% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven primarily by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains. Supporting this, the Atlanta Fed's May 14 GDPNow tracks Q2 growth at 4.0%, while economist forecasts cluster around 2.2–2.5% full-year expansion per S&P Global, Deloitte, and the Federal Reserve's March SEP at 2.4%. April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, though hotter 3.8% CPI raises Fed pause risks. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation delaying rate cuts, payroll deceleration, or trade disruptions tipping into contraction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Croissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Oui
$26,381 Vol.
$26,381 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
Oui
$26,381 Vol.
$26,381 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.6% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven primarily by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains. Supporting this, the Atlanta Fed's May 14 GDPNow tracks Q2 growth at 4.0%, while economist forecasts cluster around 2.2–2.5% full-year expansion per S&P Global, Deloitte, and the Federal Reserve's March SEP at 2.4%. April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, though hotter 3.8% CPI raises Fed pause risks. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation delaying rate cuts, payroll deceleration, or trade disruptions tipping into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$26,381Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.6% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven primarily by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains. Supporting this, the Atlanta Fed's May 14 GDPNow tracks Q2 growth at 4.0%, while economist forecasts cluster around 2.2–2.5% full-year expansion per S&P Global, Deloitte, and the Federal Reserve's March SEP at 2.4%. April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, though hotter 3.8% CPI raises Fed pause risks. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation delaying rate cuts, payroll deceleration, or trade disruptions tipping into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$26,381Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.6% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven primarily by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains. Supporting this, the Atlanta Fed's May 14 GDPNow tracks Q2 growth at 4.0%, while economist forecasts cluster around 2.2–2.5% full-year expansion per S&P Global, Deloitte, and the Federal Reserve's March SEP at 2.4%. April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, though hotter 3.8% CPI raises Fed pause risks. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation delaying rate cuts, payroll deceleration, or trade disruptions tipping into contraction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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