Broad forecaster consensus from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private economists projects U.S. real GDP expanding 1.5–2.5% for full-year 2026, underpinned by resilient Q1–Q2 2026 quarterly prints of 1.6% and 1.5% annualized, ongoing AI-driven capital expenditures, and fiscal tailwinds. This outlook underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction, reflecting traders’ skin-in-the-game assessment of above-trend growth amid stable labor conditions and contained inflation pressures. Tail risks that could still shift probabilities include sharper escalation in trade tensions or geopolitical conflicts that disrupt supply chains and energy prices, or an abrupt reversal in investment spending that tips the economy into outright negative annual growth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Croissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Oui
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
Oui
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Broad forecaster consensus from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private economists projects U.S. real GDP expanding 1.5–2.5% for full-year 2026, underpinned by resilient Q1–Q2 2026 quarterly prints of 1.6% and 1.5% annualized, ongoing AI-driven capital expenditures, and fiscal tailwinds. This outlook underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction, reflecting traders’ skin-in-the-game assessment of above-trend growth amid stable labor conditions and contained inflation pressures. Tail risks that could still shift probabilities include sharper escalation in trade tensions or geopolitical conflicts that disrupt supply chains and energy prices, or an abrupt reversal in investment spending that tips the economy into outright negative annual growth.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Broad forecaster consensus from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private economists projects U.S. real GDP expanding 1.5–2.5% for full-year 2026, underpinned by resilient Q1–Q2 2026 quarterly prints of 1.6% and 1.5% annualized, ongoing AI-driven capital expenditures, and fiscal tailwinds. This outlook underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction, reflecting traders’ skin-in-the-game assessment of above-trend growth amid stable labor conditions and contained inflation pressures. Tail risks that could still shift probabilities include sharper escalation in trade tensions or geopolitical conflicts that disrupt supply chains and energy prices, or an abrupt reversal in investment spending that tips the economy into outright negative annual growth.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Broad forecaster consensus from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private economists projects U.S. real GDP expanding 1.5–2.5% for full-year 2026, underpinned by resilient Q1–Q2 2026 quarterly prints of 1.6% and 1.5% annualized, ongoing AI-driven capital expenditures, and fiscal tailwinds. This outlook underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction, reflecting traders’ skin-in-the-game assessment of above-trend growth amid stable labor conditions and contained inflation pressures. Tail risks that could still shift probabilities include sharper escalation in trade tensions or geopolitical conflicts that disrupt supply chains and energy prices, or an abrupt reversal in investment spending that tips the economy into outright negative annual growth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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