Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target amid resurgent inflation pressures. The primary catalyst is April's consumer price index surging 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the hottest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll gains of 115,000, signaling a resilient labor market that prompted the Fed's April hold and dimmed near-term cut expectations. Treasury yields have climbed in response, aligning with CME FedWatch's similar no-change bias. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI data due June 10 or weakening June jobs figures ahead of the June FOMC, potentially reviving easing bets if inflation convincingly cools.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun changement 93%
Baisse de 25 points de base 4.3%
Hausse de 25 points de base 2.5%
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base 1.1%
$5,343,909 Vol.
$5,343,909 Vol.
29 juil. 2026
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
4%
Aucun changement
93%
Hausse de 25 points de base
2%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Aucun changement 93%
Baisse de 25 points de base 4.3%
Hausse de 25 points de base 2.5%
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base 1.1%
$5,343,909 Vol.
$5,343,909 Vol.
29 juil. 2026
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base
$507,288 Vol.
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$395,298 Vol.
4%
Aucun changement
$621,665 Vol.
93%
Hausse de 25 points de base
$3,356,543 Vol.
2%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
$463,515 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target amid resurgent inflation pressures. The primary catalyst is April's consumer price index surging 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the hottest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll gains of 115,000, signaling a resilient labor market that prompted the Fed's April hold and dimmed near-term cut expectations. Treasury yields have climbed in response, aligning with CME FedWatch's similar no-change bias. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI data due June 10 or weakening June jobs figures ahead of the June FOMC, potentially reviving easing bets if inflation convincingly cools.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$5,343,909Date de fin
29 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target amid resurgent inflation pressures. The primary catalyst is April's consumer price index surging 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the hottest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll gains of 115,000, signaling a resilient labor market that prompted the Fed's April hold and dimmed near-term cut expectations. Treasury yields have climbed in response, aligning with CME FedWatch's similar no-change bias. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI data due June 10 or weakening June jobs figures ahead of the June FOMC, potentially reviving easing bets if inflation convincingly cools.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,343,909Date de fin
29 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target amid resurgent inflation pressures. The primary catalyst is April's consumer price index surging 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the hottest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll gains of 115,000, signaling a resilient labor market that prompted the Fed's April hold and dimmed near-term cut expectations. Treasury yields have climbed in response, aligning with CME FedWatch's similar no-change bias. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI data due June 10 or weakening June jobs figures ahead of the June FOMC, potentially reviving easing bets if inflation convincingly cools.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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