Hot April 2026 CPI data, revealing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—fueled by 3.8% monthly energy price surges amid Iran war disruptions, has propelled market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike higher, with CME FedWatch Tool showing roughly 37% probability before year-end. This follows steady 4.3% unemployment and 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions, signaling resilient labor markets despite moderating job growth. The FOMC maintained its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target at the April 28-29 meeting, but persistent inflation above target is reshaping trader consensus on Polymarket, where October meeting leads at 17%. Upcoming June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$148,079 Vol.

Réunion de juin
2%

Réunion de juillet
6%

Réunion de septembre
18%

Réunion d'octobre
34%
$148,079 Vol.

Réunion de juin
2%

Réunion de juillet
6%

Réunion de septembre
18%

Réunion d'octobre
34%
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Hot April 2026 CPI data, revealing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—fueled by 3.8% monthly energy price surges amid Iran war disruptions, has propelled market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike higher, with CME FedWatch Tool showing roughly 37% probability before year-end. This follows steady 4.3% unemployment and 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions, signaling resilient labor markets despite moderating job growth. The FOMC maintained its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target at the April 28-29 meeting, but persistent inflation above target is reshaping trader consensus on Polymarket, where October meeting leads at 17%. Upcoming June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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