Polymarket traders price a 36.5% implied probability on the May unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, reflecting the April Bureau of Labor Statistics report released May 8, which showed the rate unchanged at 4.3% amid subdued nonfarm payroll growth of just 115,000—below consensus—and a slight rise in the unemployed to 7.37 million. Supporting stability are historically low initial jobless claims at 200,000 for the week ending May 2 and steady JOLTS job openings at a 4.1% rate, though softening payroll momentum elevates odds for a tick higher to 4.4% (21.5%) or lower to 4.2% (18.5%). Consensus forecasts cluster nearby, with the official May release slated for June 5 signaling minimal directional shift absent fresh labor strains.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMay Unemployment Rate
May Unemployment Rate
4.3% 36%
4.1% 32.0%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 juin 2026
≤3.9%
5%
4.0%
5%
4.1%
32%
4.2%
20%
4.3%
36%
4.4%
34%
4.5%
11%
4.6%
3%
≥4.7%
5%
4.3% 36%
4.1% 32.0%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 juin 2026
≤3.9%
$45 Vol.
5%
4.0%
$73 Vol.
5%
4.1%
$45 Vol.
32%
4.2%
$38 Vol.
20%
4.3%
$72 Vol.
36%
4.4%
$54 Vol.
34%
4.5%
$50 Vol.
11%
4.6%
$44 Vol.
3%
≥4.7%
$51 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 36.5% implied probability on the May unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, reflecting the April Bureau of Labor Statistics report released May 8, which showed the rate unchanged at 4.3% amid subdued nonfarm payroll growth of just 115,000—below consensus—and a slight rise in the unemployed to 7.37 million. Supporting stability are historically low initial jobless claims at 200,000 for the week ending May 2 and steady JOLTS job openings at a 4.1% rate, though softening payroll momentum elevates odds for a tick higher to 4.4% (21.5%) or lower to 4.2% (18.5%). Consensus forecasts cluster nearby, with the official May release slated for June 5 signaling minimal directional shift absent fresh labor strains.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$473Date de fin
5 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 36.5% implied probability on the May unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, reflecting the April Bureau of Labor Statistics report released May 8, which showed the rate unchanged at 4.3% amid subdued nonfarm payroll growth of just 115,000—below consensus—and a slight rise in the unemployed to 7.37 million. Supporting stability are historically low initial jobless claims at 200,000 for the week ending May 2 and steady JOLTS job openings at a 4.1% rate, though softening payroll momentum elevates odds for a tick higher to 4.4% (21.5%) or lower to 4.2% (18.5%). Consensus forecasts cluster nearby, with the official May release slated for June 5 signaling minimal directional shift absent fresh labor strains.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$473Date de fin
5 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 36.5% implied probability on the May unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, reflecting the April Bureau of Labor Statistics report released May 8, which showed the rate unchanged at 4.3% amid subdued nonfarm payroll growth of just 115,000—below consensus—and a slight rise in the unemployed to 7.37 million. Supporting stability are historically low initial jobless claims at 200,000 for the week ending May 2 and steady JOLTS job openings at a 4.1% rate, though softening payroll momentum elevates odds for a tick higher to 4.4% (21.5%) or lower to 4.2% (18.5%). Consensus forecasts cluster nearby, with the official May release slated for June 5 signaling minimal directional shift absent fresh labor strains.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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