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Économie·Entreprise

Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?

icon for Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
Économie·Entreprise

Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?

0 (0 bps) 67.0%

1 (25 bps) 16%

2 (50 pb) 6%

4 (100 pb) 1.8%

Polymarket

$26,632,716 Vol.

0 (0 bps) 67.0%

1 (25 bps) 16%

2 (50 pb) 6%

4 (100 pb) 1.8%

Polymarket

$26,632,716 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$4,156,744 Vol.

67%

1 (25 bps)

$1,242,604 Vol.

16%

2 (50 pb)

$1,188,671 Vol.

6%

3 (75 points de base)

$1,092,442 Vol.

2%

4 (100 pb)

$1,189,695 Vol.

2%

5 (125 pb)

$1,401,082 Vol.

1%

6 (150 points de base)

$2,452,223 Vol.

1%

7 (175 points de base)

$1,315,134 Vol.

1%

8 (200 points de base)

$1,705,717 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 points de base)

$2,431,206 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 pb)

$3,078,956 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 points de base)

$3,241,206 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$2,137,486 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 67% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting sticky inflation pressures after April 2026 CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict disrupting Middle East oil supplies. The Fed maintained its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April FOMC meeting amid an 8-4 dissent vote for easing, aligning with March dot plot medians showing limited 2026 reductions. Brokerages like BofA and Goldman have delayed cut forecasts amid reaccelerating prices, with CME FedWatch signaling steady rates through mid-year. Upcoming June FOMC and May PCE data will test this no-cut consensus.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,632,716
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 67% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting sticky inflation pressures after April 2026 CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict disrupting Middle East oil supplies. The Fed maintained its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April FOMC meeting amid an 8-4 dissent vote for easing, aligning with March dot plot medians showing limited 2026 reductions. Brokerages like BofA and Goldman have delayed cut forecasts amid reaccelerating prices, with CME FedWatch signaling steady rates through mid-year. Upcoming June FOMC and May PCE data will test this no-cut consensus.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,632,716
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Questions fréquentes

« Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 13 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 0 (0 bps) » à 67%, suivi de « 1 (25 bps) » à 16%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 67¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 67% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ? » a généré $26.6 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Sep 29, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ? », parcourez les 13 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ? » est « 0 (0 bps) » à 67%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 67% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 1 (25 bps) » à 16%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.