The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 4.50%—its highest in 10 months—following April 2026 CPI data showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation, up from 3.3% in March and the hottest print since May 2023, fueled by persistent energy and producer price pressures. This reacceleration has steepened market-implied rate paths, with the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds target at 3.50%–3.75% after its April 28–29 meeting, signaling caution amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Traders are pricing in limited near-term cuts, with Treasury yields reflecting heightened reflation risks versus official dot plots. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI on June 10 and the next FOMC in late June, where hotter data could push yields toward 4.75% thresholds before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
Quel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
$200,742 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
4,5 %
92%
4,6 %
63%
4,8 %
22%
5,0 %
11%
5,2 %
9%
5,5 %
7%
5,7 %
7%
6,0 %
5%
$200,742 Vol.
4,5 %
$32,096 Vol.
92%
4,6 %
$36,287 Vol.
63%
4,8 %
$47,062 Vol.
22%
5,0 %
$42,999 Vol.
11%
5,2 %
$8,584 Vol.
9%
5,5 %
$1,448 Vol.
7%
5,7 %
$3,229 Vol.
7%
6,0 %
$2,070 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 4.50%—its highest in 10 months—following April 2026 CPI data showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation, up from 3.3% in March and the hottest print since May 2023, fueled by persistent energy and producer price pressures. This reacceleration has steepened market-implied rate paths, with the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds target at 3.50%–3.75% after its April 28–29 meeting, signaling caution amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Traders are pricing in limited near-term cuts, with Treasury yields reflecting heightened reflation risks versus official dot plots. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI on June 10 and the next FOMC in late June, where hotter data could push yields toward 4.75% thresholds before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$200,742Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 4.50%—its highest in 10 months—following April 2026 CPI data showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation, up from 3.3% in March and the hottest print since May 2023, fueled by persistent energy and producer price pressures. This reacceleration has steepened market-implied rate paths, with the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds target at 3.50%–3.75% after its April 28–29 meeting, signaling caution amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Traders are pricing in limited near-term cuts, with Treasury yields reflecting heightened reflation risks versus official dot plots. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI on June 10 and the next FOMC in late June, where hotter data could push yields toward 4.75% thresholds before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$200,742Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 4.50%—its highest in 10 months—following April 2026 CPI data showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation, up from 3.3% in March and the hottest print since May 2023, fueled by persistent energy and producer price pressures. This reacceleration has steepened market-implied rate paths, with the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds target at 3.50%–3.75% after its April 28–29 meeting, signaling caution amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Traders are pricing in limited near-term cuts, with Treasury yields reflecting heightened reflation risks versus official dot plots. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI on June 10 and the next FOMC in late June, where hotter data could push yields toward 4.75% thresholds before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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