Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly risks tied to the Iran conflict, have driven recent surges in oil prices and lifted inflation expectations, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.70% as of August 14, 2026—near 19-month highs and up 0.38 percentage points over the past year. Sticky inflation readings, including University of Michigan expectations above 4%, combined with heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, have elevated term premiums and reduced demand for longer-duration bonds. The Federal Reserve's patient stance on the 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range has further supported higher long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases plus FOMC communications that could shift market-implied rate paths and Treasury yield trajectories before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
Quel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
$284,581 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
4,8 %
63%
5,0 %
32%
5,2 %
15%
5,5 %
7%
5,7 %
5%
6,0 %
7%
$284,581 Vol.
4,8 %
$59,299 Vol.
63%
5,0 %
$81,004 Vol.
32%
5,2 %
$25,519 Vol.
15%
5,5 %
$5,202 Vol.
7%
5,7 %
$4,220 Vol.
5%
6,0 %
$3,052 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly risks tied to the Iran conflict, have driven recent surges in oil prices and lifted inflation expectations, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.70% as of August 14, 2026—near 19-month highs and up 0.38 percentage points over the past year. Sticky inflation readings, including University of Michigan expectations above 4%, combined with heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, have elevated term premiums and reduced demand for longer-duration bonds. The Federal Reserve's patient stance on the 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range has further supported higher long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases plus FOMC communications that could shift market-implied rate paths and Treasury yield trajectories before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$284,581Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly risks tied to the Iran conflict, have driven recent surges in oil prices and lifted inflation expectations, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.70% as of August 14, 2026—near 19-month highs and up 0.38 percentage points over the past year. Sticky inflation readings, including University of Michigan expectations above 4%, combined with heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, have elevated term premiums and reduced demand for longer-duration bonds. The Federal Reserve's patient stance on the 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range has further supported higher long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases plus FOMC communications that could shift market-implied rate paths and Treasury yield trajectories before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$284,581Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly risks tied to the Iran conflict, have driven recent surges in oil prices and lifted inflation expectations, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.70% as of August 14, 2026—near 19-month highs and up 0.38 percentage points over the past year. Sticky inflation readings, including University of Michigan expectations above 4%, combined with heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, have elevated term premiums and reduced demand for longer-duration bonds. The Federal Reserve's patient stance on the 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range has further supported higher long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases plus FOMC communications that could shift market-implied rate paths and Treasury yield trajectories before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes