The Justice Department’s April 2026 decision to close its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over Senate testimony on the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation has been the dominant driver of trader sentiment. Launched in January amid disputes over renovation costs and Powell’s congressional statements, the probe was quashed by a federal judge in March and formally dropped weeks later, with the DOJ citing an inspector-general review instead. This outcome has aligned with broader market expectations of Fed independence, keeping any implied probability of federal charges extremely low. With no active investigation or new subpoenas reported since April and Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process advancing, near-term resolution catalysts appear limited through year-end.