The Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—centered on his congressional testimony and headquarters renovation costs—has anchored trader sentiment, producing market-implied odds below 4% for formal charges by year-end. A federal judge previously quashed related subpoenas, citing insufficient evidence beyond policy disputes over interest-rate decisions and Fed independence. Powell completed his chair term in May and continues as a Board governor through 2028, reducing direct exposure. With no active proceedings or new filings since the dismissal, recent economic data releases and FOMC communications have shifted focus to monetary policy rather than legal risks, reinforcing the consensus that political targeting alone lacks the substantiation needed for indictment.