Traders have assigned a 96.8% implied probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will avoid incarceration before 2027, driven by the complete absence of active criminal investigations, indictments, or regulatory actions targeting him. His role centers on monetary policy, including Fed funds rate decisions and inflation management through 2026, without any linkage to legal proceedings that could result in jail time. This market consensus mirrors historical norms for central bank leadership. Remote tail risks, such as unprecedented political developments after his term ends, remain the only plausible paths to an outcome shift, though institutional safeguards make them highly improbable.