The abrupt conclusion of the Department of Justice investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026, with no charges filed and subpoenas quashed by a federal judge citing a complete lack of evidence beyond policy disagreements, has anchored the 98.3% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Institutional safeguards around Fed independence, strict evidentiary standards for perjury or false statements to Congress, and the absence of any subsequent regulatory or criminal actions have reinforced trader consensus that such an outcome remains a remote outlier. While tail risks such as unforeseen political escalations or new probes cannot be entirely ruled out, the bar for criminal liability against a sitting or former central bank leader remains exceptionally high, consistent with historical precedent.