Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, driven by April's euro area CPI surging to 3.0% year-over-year—up from 2.6% in March—fueled by a 10.9% energy price spike amid Middle East war disruptions. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but highlighted upside inflation risks in its statement, aligning with economist surveys like Bloomberg's forecasting two hikes this year amid revised 2026 inflation projections to 2.6-2.7%. Weak Q1 GDP growth at 0.1% tempers larger move odds below 1%, while May CPI data and ECB speeches ahead of June could refine positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Hausse de 25 points de base 83%
No change 16.4%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$255,067 Vol.
$255,067 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
16%
Hausse de 25 points de base
83%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Hausse de 25 points de base 83%
No change 16.4%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$255,067 Vol.
$255,067 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
16%
Hausse de 25 points de base
83%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
1%
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, driven by April's euro area CPI surging to 3.0% year-over-year—up from 2.6% in March—fueled by a 10.9% energy price spike amid Middle East war disruptions. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but highlighted upside inflation risks in its statement, aligning with economist surveys like Bloomberg's forecasting two hikes this year amid revised 2026 inflation projections to 2.6-2.7%. Weak Q1 GDP growth at 0.1% tempers larger move odds below 1%, while May CPI data and ECB speeches ahead of June could refine positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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