Traders assign an implied 79.8% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the hawkish tone from the April 27-28 policy board decision. That meeting produced a 6-3 split to hold the policy rate at 0.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate lift to 1.00%. Recent communications have highlighted upside inflation risks stemming from Middle East tensions and the fourth round of base-pay wage gains expected later this year. The central bank’s upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast and persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar have further anchored expectations for normalization. Market-implied odds for no change stand at 19.5%, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible at under 2% combined. Attention now turns to May CPI data and any further yen intervention signals ahead of the June resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHausse de 25 points de base 79.8%
Pas de changement 20%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base 1.2%
Diminuer les taux <1%
$115,192 Vol.
$115,192 Vol.
16 juin 2026
Diminuer les taux
1%
Pas de changement
20%
Hausse de 25 points de base
80%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Hausse de 25 points de base 79.8%
Pas de changement 20%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base 1.2%
Diminuer les taux <1%
$115,192 Vol.
$115,192 Vol.
16 juin 2026
Diminuer les taux
$34,145 Vol.
1%
Pas de changement
$29,089 Vol.
20%
Hausse de 25 points de base
$27,591 Vol.
80%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
$24,367 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign an implied 79.8% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the hawkish tone from the April 27-28 policy board decision. That meeting produced a 6-3 split to hold the policy rate at 0.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate lift to 1.00%. Recent communications have highlighted upside inflation risks stemming from Middle East tensions and the fourth round of base-pay wage gains expected later this year. The central bank’s upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast and persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar have further anchored expectations for normalization. Market-implied odds for no change stand at 19.5%, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible at under 2% combined. Attention now turns to May CPI data and any further yen intervention signals ahead of the June resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$115,192Date de fin
16 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign an implied 79.8% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the hawkish tone from the April 27-28 policy board decision. That meeting produced a 6-3 split to hold the policy rate at 0.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate lift to 1.00%. Recent communications have highlighted upside inflation risks stemming from Middle East tensions and the fourth round of base-pay wage gains expected later this year. The central bank’s upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast and persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar have further anchored expectations for normalization. Market-implied odds for no change stand at 19.5%, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible at under 2% combined. Attention now turns to May CPI data and any further yen intervention signals ahead of the June resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$115,192Date de fin
16 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign an implied 79.8% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the hawkish tone from the April 27-28 policy board decision. That meeting produced a 6-3 split to hold the policy rate at 0.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate lift to 1.00%. Recent communications have highlighted upside inflation risks stemming from Middle East tensions and the fourth round of base-pay wage gains expected later this year. The central bank’s upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast and persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar have further anchored expectations for normalization. Market-implied odds for no change stand at 19.5%, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible at under 2% combined. Attention now turns to May CPI data and any further yen intervention signals ahead of the June resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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