Recent U.S. sanctions relief after Venezuela’s 2026 political transition has enabled expanded operating licenses for firms including Chevron, supporting a rebound in crude output to roughly 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day by July amid higher exports to the United States and India. PDVSA’s year-end target of 1.37 million bpd reflects incremental gains from maintenance and diluent imports rather than rapid capacity expansion, while trader consensus prices limited upside this year given persistent infrastructure bottlenecks, heavy-crude processing constraints, and the multi-billion-dollar investment needed for sustained growth. Key near-term catalysts include monthly OPEC production data releases and fresh foreign capital commitments that could revise implied probabilities for threshold breaches.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$182,394 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
1,2 million
59%
1,3 million
20%
1,4 million
9%
1,5 million
6%
1,7 million
3%
2 millions
2%
$182,394 Vol.
1,2 million
$10,444 Vol.
59%
1,3 million
$7,721 Vol.
20%
1,4 million
$19,774 Vol.
9%
1,5 million
$9,719 Vol.
6%
1,7 million
$58,787 Vol.
3%
2 millions
$16,311 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent U.S. sanctions relief after Venezuela’s 2026 political transition has enabled expanded operating licenses for firms including Chevron, supporting a rebound in crude output to roughly 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day by July amid higher exports to the United States and India. PDVSA’s year-end target of 1.37 million bpd reflects incremental gains from maintenance and diluent imports rather than rapid capacity expansion, while trader consensus prices limited upside this year given persistent infrastructure bottlenecks, heavy-crude processing constraints, and the multi-billion-dollar investment needed for sustained growth. Key near-term catalysts include monthly OPEC production data releases and fresh foreign capital commitments that could revise implied probabilities for threshold breaches.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$182,394Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent U.S. sanctions relief after Venezuela’s 2026 political transition has enabled expanded operating licenses for firms including Chevron, supporting a rebound in crude output to roughly 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day by July amid higher exports to the United States and India. PDVSA’s year-end target of 1.37 million bpd reflects incremental gains from maintenance and diluent imports rather than rapid capacity expansion, while trader consensus prices limited upside this year given persistent infrastructure bottlenecks, heavy-crude processing constraints, and the multi-billion-dollar investment needed for sustained growth. Key near-term catalysts include monthly OPEC production data releases and fresh foreign capital commitments that could revise implied probabilities for threshold breaches.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$182,394Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. sanctions relief after Venezuela’s 2026 political transition has enabled expanded operating licenses for firms including Chevron, supporting a rebound in crude output to roughly 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day by July amid higher exports to the United States and India. PDVSA’s year-end target of 1.37 million bpd reflects incremental gains from maintenance and diluent imports rather than rapid capacity expansion, while trader consensus prices limited upside this year given persistent infrastructure bottlenecks, heavy-crude processing constraints, and the multi-billion-dollar investment needed for sustained growth. Key near-term catalysts include monthly OPEC production data releases and fresh foreign capital commitments that could revise implied probabilities for threshold breaches.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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