Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 88.5% for U.S. annexation of any territory in 2026, reflecting stalled diplomatic and legislative efforts amid strong international opposition. President Trump's early-year push for Greenland acquisition—via public statements, Rep. Randy Fine's January annexation bill, and Pentagon emphasis on Western Hemisphere security—sparked initial speculation, but Denmark's prime minister firmly rejected claims, U.S. senators introduced blocking legislation, and NATO allies voiced concerns over alliance stability. No negotiations have advanced, no military actions occurred, and no further catalysts emerged in the past 30 days through mid-May. Constitutional requirements for treaties or congressional approval, plus historical rarity of U.S. annexations, reinforce trader skepticism despite rhetoric on Canada or Panama Canal. Late-year developments like summits could shift odds, but barriers remain high.