US pressure on Cuba intensified after the January 2026 US intervention in Venezuela that removed Nicolás Maduro, triggering an oil blockade that cut off Venezuelan and Mexican fuel shipments and produced severe shortages, blackouts, and economic strain on the island. The Trump administration followed with executive orders imposing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, expanded sanctions, increased reconnaissance flights, and deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group plus Marine units to the Caribbean. Pentagon planners have examined contingency options ranging from limited strikes to air assaults, while senior officials have issued public warnings about Cuban drone acquisitions and ties to Russia and Iran. No military operations have occurred to date, however, and assessments indicate action is unlikely before the November 2026 midterm elections due to political and resource constraints amid the ongoing Iran situation. Traders are therefore focused on whether negotiations yield a leadership transition or whether post-election military planning advances.