US officials revoked Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa on August 4, 2026, in a reciprocal response to Brazil’s refusal to approve President Trump’s ambassador nominee and its denial of entry to two US diplomats. State Department statements explicitly distinguished the measure from expulsion or persona non grata status, noting the visa could be restored upon Brazilian approval of the US envoy. Ongoing bilateral frictions include prior tariff actions, yet no diplomatic expulsion has occurred, and the October Brazilian presidential election period favors contained reciprocity over escalation. Traders assign “No” a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting the narrow, reversible nature of current steps and absence of signals pointing to formal expulsion by the September 30 resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
6% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Oui
6% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US officials revoked Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa on August 4, 2026, in a reciprocal response to Brazil’s refusal to approve President Trump’s ambassador nominee and its denial of entry to two US diplomats. State Department statements explicitly distinguished the measure from expulsion or persona non grata status, noting the visa could be restored upon Brazilian approval of the US envoy. Ongoing bilateral frictions include prior tariff actions, yet no diplomatic expulsion has occurred, and the October Brazilian presidential election period favors contained reciprocity over escalation. Traders assign “No” a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting the narrow, reversible nature of current steps and absence of signals pointing to formal expulsion by the September 30 resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,807Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US officials revoked Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa on August 4, 2026, in a reciprocal response to Brazil’s refusal to approve President Trump’s ambassador nominee and its denial of entry to two US diplomats. State Department statements explicitly distinguished the measure from expulsion or persona non grata status, noting the visa could be restored upon Brazilian approval of the US envoy. Ongoing bilateral frictions include prior tariff actions, yet no diplomatic expulsion has occurred, and the October Brazilian presidential election period favors contained reciprocity over escalation. Traders assign “No” a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting the narrow, reversible nature of current steps and absence of signals pointing to formal expulsion by the September 30 resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,807Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US officials revoked Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa on August 4, 2026, in a reciprocal response to Brazil’s refusal to approve President Trump’s ambassador nominee and its denial of entry to two US diplomats. State Department statements explicitly distinguished the measure from expulsion or persona non grata status, noting the visa could be restored upon Brazilian approval of the US envoy. Ongoing bilateral frictions include prior tariff actions, yet no diplomatic expulsion has occurred, and the October Brazilian presidential election period favors contained reciprocity over escalation. Traders assign “No” a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting the narrow, reversible nature of current steps and absence of signals pointing to formal expulsion by the September 30 resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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