Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such actions against top envoys amid generally stable bilateral relations. No verified expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite rhetorical pressures like Hezbollah's May 4 call for Lebanon to declare U.S. Ambassador Michael Issa persona non grata over comments on religious offenses, and South Africa's EFF party's March demands to expel Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III for criticizing judicial and racial policies—yet Pretoria opted to summon him and appoint a new envoy to Washington in April. U.S. expulsions of foreign diplomats, such as Iran's UN deputy in late 2025, elicited no reciprocal moves against American ambassadors, underscoring diplomatic norms and potential escalation risks that keep odds firmly against.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$15,172 Vol.
$15,172 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$15,172 Vol.
$15,172 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such actions against top envoys amid generally stable bilateral relations. No verified expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite rhetorical pressures like Hezbollah's May 4 call for Lebanon to declare U.S. Ambassador Michael Issa persona non grata over comments on religious offenses, and South Africa's EFF party's March demands to expel Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III for criticizing judicial and racial policies—yet Pretoria opted to summon him and appoint a new envoy to Washington in April. U.S. expulsions of foreign diplomats, such as Iran's UN deputy in late 2025, elicited no reciprocal moves against American ambassadors, underscoring diplomatic norms and potential escalation risks that keep odds firmly against.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$15,172Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such actions against top envoys amid generally stable bilateral relations. No verified expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite rhetorical pressures like Hezbollah's May 4 call for Lebanon to declare U.S. Ambassador Michael Issa persona non grata over comments on religious offenses, and South Africa's EFF party's March demands to expel Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III for criticizing judicial and racial policies—yet Pretoria opted to summon him and appoint a new envoy to Washington in April. U.S. expulsions of foreign diplomats, such as Iran's UN deputy in late 2025, elicited no reciprocal moves against American ambassadors, underscoring diplomatic norms and potential escalation risks that keep odds firmly against.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15,172Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such actions against top envoys amid generally stable bilateral relations. No verified expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite rhetorical pressures like Hezbollah's May 4 call for Lebanon to declare U.S. Ambassador Michael Issa persona non grata over comments on religious offenses, and South Africa's EFF party's March demands to expel Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III for criticizing judicial and racial policies—yet Pretoria opted to summon him and appoint a new envoy to Washington in April. U.S. expulsions of foreign diplomats, such as Iran's UN deputy in late 2025, elicited no reciprocal moves against American ambassadors, underscoring diplomatic norms and potential escalation risks that keep odds firmly against.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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