**The 58.5% implied probability on “No” reflects limited near-term catalysts for formal House censure action before the October 31 deadline.** Censure resolutions require a majority vote and typically arise from specific member conduct, such as chamber disruptions or ethics findings, yet no privileged resolutions targeting sitting members are advancing on the floor as of early August 2026. The 119th Congress has already used the tool multiple times since 2025, including against Reps. Al Green and Chuy Garcia, and attempted measures against others, but activity has centered on earlier sessions rather than the current pre-election period. With the November 2026 elections approaching and both parties focused on campaigns and open-seat dynamics, internal disciplinary measures have lower priority absent a fresh high-profile incident. Trader consensus therefore prices the short window as more likely to pass without a successful vote, while still assigning meaningful odds to the possibility of partisan escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a resolution of Censure against any individual who is a sitting member of the House at the time such resolution is passed, between market creation and October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying resolution must explicitly censure the member — resolutions of reprimand, condemnation, or disapproval that do not censure will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., https://www.congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The 58.5% implied probability on “No” reflects limited near-term catalysts for formal House censure action before the October 31 deadline.** Censure resolutions require a majority vote and typically arise from specific member conduct, such as chamber disruptions or ethics findings, yet no privileged resolutions targeting sitting members are advancing on the floor as of early August 2026.
The 119th Congress has already used the tool multiple times since 2025, including against Reps. Al Green and Chuy Garcia, and attempted measures against others, but activity has centered on earlier sessions rather than the current pre-election period. With the November 2026 elections approaching and both parties focused on campaigns and open-seat dynamics, internal disciplinary measures have lower priority absent a fresh high-profile incident.
Trader consensus therefore prices the short window as more likely to pass without a successful vote, while still assigning meaningful odds to the possibility of partisan escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a resolution of Censure against any individual who is a sitting member of the House at the time such resolution is passed, between market creation and October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying resolution must explicitly censure the member — resolutions of reprimand, condemnation, or disapproval that do not censure will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., https://www.congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying resolution must explicitly censure the member — resolutions of reprimand, condemnation, or disapproval that do not censure will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., https://www.congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$6Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a resolution of Censure against any individual who is a sitting member of the House at the time such resolution is passed, between market creation and October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying resolution must explicitly censure the member — resolutions of reprimand, condemnation, or disapproval that do not censure will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., https://www.congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The 58.5% implied probability on “No” reflects limited near-term catalysts for formal House censure action before the October 31 deadline.** Censure resolutions require a majority vote and typically arise from specific member conduct, such as chamber disruptions or ethics findings, yet no privileged resolutions targeting sitting members are advancing on the floor as of early August 2026.
The 119th Congress has already used the tool multiple times since 2025, including against Reps. Al Green and Chuy Garcia, and attempted measures against others, but activity has centered on earlier sessions rather than the current pre-election period. With the November 2026 elections approaching and both parties focused on campaigns and open-seat dynamics, internal disciplinary measures have lower priority absent a fresh high-profile incident.
Trader consensus therefore prices the short window as more likely to pass without a successful vote, while still assigning meaningful odds to the possibility of partisan escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a resolution of Censure against any individual who is a sitting member of the House at the time such resolution is passed, between market creation and October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying resolution must explicitly censure the member — resolutions of reprimand, condemnation, or disapproval that do not censure will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., https://www.congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying resolution must explicitly censure the member — resolutions of reprimand, condemnation, or disapproval that do not censure will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., https://www.congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 58.5% implied probability on “No” reflects limited near-term catalysts for formal House censure action before the October 31 deadline.** Censure resolutions require a majority vote and typically arise from specific member conduct, such as chamber disruptions or ethics findings, yet no privileged resolutions targeting sitting members are advancing on the floor as of early August 2026. The 119th Congress has already used the tool multiple times since 2025, including against Reps. Al Green and Chuy Garcia, and attempted measures against others, but activity has centered on earlier sessions rather than the current pre-election period. With the November 2026 elections approaching and both parties focused on campaigns and open-seat dynamics, internal disciplinary measures have lower priority absent a fresh high-profile incident. Trader consensus therefore prices the short window as more likely to pass without a successful vote, while still assigning meaningful odds to the possibility of partisan escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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