Elon Musk’s posting pace on X continues to anchor trader expectations for the August 3–5 window, with the 40-64 tweet bucket holding the clearest edge at 45.5% implied probability. Weekday activity typically clusters in the mid-teens to low-twenties per day, driven by company updates, Grok iterations, and real-time commentary on politics or tech milestones. Recent posts around Starlink, migration issues, and product replies show steady but not explosive volume, keeping the sub-40 range as a credible second outcome at 32.4%. Markets discount 65-plus totals because sustained high-frequency bursts usually require major breaking events that have yet to materialize, while historical patterns and current sentiment both point to moderate output through midweek.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourElon Musk # tweets 3 août - 5 août 2026 ?
Elon Musk # tweets 3 août - 5 août 2026 ?
40-64 46%
Moins de 40 34.2%
65-89 19%
90-114 2.7%
$164,246 Vol.
$164,246 Vol.
5 août 2026
Moins de 40
34%
40-64
46%
65-89
19%
90-114
3%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 46%
Moins de 40 34.2%
65-89 19%
90-114 2.7%
$164,246 Vol.
$164,246 Vol.
5 août 2026
Moins de 40
$31,510 Vol.
34%
40-64
$24,075 Vol.
46%
65-89
$20,108 Vol.
19%
90-114
$20,374 Vol.
3%
115-139
$26,878 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$16,943 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$8,185 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$6,641 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$5,865 Vol.
<1%
240+
$3,668 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s posting pace on X continues to anchor trader expectations for the August 3–5 window, with the 40-64 tweet bucket holding the clearest edge at 45.5% implied probability. Weekday activity typically clusters in the mid-teens to low-twenties per day, driven by company updates, Grok iterations, and real-time commentary on politics or tech milestones. Recent posts around Starlink, migration issues, and product replies show steady but not explosive volume, keeping the sub-40 range as a credible second outcome at 32.4%. Markets discount 65-plus totals because sustained high-frequency bursts usually require major breaking events that have yet to materialize, while historical patterns and current sentiment both point to moderate output through midweek.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$164,246Date de fin
5 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s posting pace on X continues to anchor trader expectations for the August 3–5 window, with the 40-64 tweet bucket holding the clearest edge at 45.5% implied probability. Weekday activity typically clusters in the mid-teens to low-twenties per day, driven by company updates, Grok iterations, and real-time commentary on politics or tech milestones. Recent posts around Starlink, migration issues, and product replies show steady but not explosive volume, keeping the sub-40 range as a credible second outcome at 32.4%. Markets discount 65-plus totals because sustained high-frequency bursts usually require major breaking events that have yet to materialize, while historical patterns and current sentiment both point to moderate output through midweek.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$164,246Date de fin
5 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s posting pace on X continues to anchor trader expectations for the August 3–5 window, with the 40-64 tweet bucket holding the clearest edge at 45.5% implied probability. Weekday activity typically clusters in the mid-teens to low-twenties per day, driven by company updates, Grok iterations, and real-time commentary on politics or tech milestones. Recent posts around Starlink, migration issues, and product replies show steady but not explosive volume, keeping the sub-40 range as a credible second outcome at 32.4%. Markets discount 65-plus totals because sustained high-frequency bursts usually require major breaking events that have yet to materialize, while historical patterns and current sentiment both point to moderate output through midweek.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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