Traders view the closely matched 180-239 tweet ranges as the most probable outcome for Elon Musk during August 7-14, 2026, with those bins commanding the top implied probabilities around 37%. This tight clustering among adjacent buckets reflects uncertainty around his variable posting cadence, shaped by ongoing business developments at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI alongside real-time news cycles and public commentary. Historical patterns indicate moderate weekly volume absent major catalysts, while the lower odds on extremes highlight limited expectations for spikes or lulls. Key differentiating factors include any high-profile announcements or industry events that could shift engagement levels before the period concludes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour80-99 17%
380-399 17%
200-219 17%
180-199 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 août 2026
<20
1%
20-39
1%
40-59
1%
60-79
1%
80-99
17%
100-119
7%
120-139
8%
140-159
10%
160-179
12%
180-199
16%
200-219
17%
220-239
16%
240-259
15%
260-279
13%
280-299
11%
300-319
10%
320-339
10%
340-359
9%
360-379
9%
380-399
17%
400-419
11%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500+
1%
80-99 17%
380-399 17%
200-219 17%
180-199 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 août 2026
<20
$10 Vol.
1%
20-39
$10 Vol.
1%
40-59
$10 Vol.
1%
60-79
$10 Vol.
1%
80-99
$10 Vol.
17%
100-119
$0 Vol.
7%
120-139
$0 Vol.
8%
140-159
$0 Vol.
10%
160-179
$0 Vol.
12%
180-199
$0 Vol.
16%
200-219
$0 Vol.
17%
220-239
$0 Vol.
16%
240-259
$0 Vol.
15%
260-279
$0 Vol.
13%
280-299
$0 Vol.
11%
300-319
$0 Vol.
10%
320-339
$0 Vol.
10%
340-359
$0 Vol.
9%
360-379
$0 Vol.
9%
380-399
$10 Vol.
17%
400-419
$10 Vol.
11%
420-439
$36 Vol.
1%
440-459
$10 Vol.
1%
460-479
$10 Vol.
1%
480-499
$10 Vol.
1%
500+
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders view the closely matched 180-239 tweet ranges as the most probable outcome for Elon Musk during August 7-14, 2026, with those bins commanding the top implied probabilities around 37%. This tight clustering among adjacent buckets reflects uncertainty around his variable posting cadence, shaped by ongoing business developments at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI alongside real-time news cycles and public commentary. Historical patterns indicate moderate weekly volume absent major catalysts, while the lower odds on extremes highlight limited expectations for spikes or lulls. Key differentiating factors include any high-profile announcements or industry events that could shift engagement levels before the period concludes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$146Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders view the closely matched 180-239 tweet ranges as the most probable outcome for Elon Musk during August 7-14, 2026, with those bins commanding the top implied probabilities around 37%. This tight clustering among adjacent buckets reflects uncertainty around his variable posting cadence, shaped by ongoing business developments at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI alongside real-time news cycles and public commentary. Historical patterns indicate moderate weekly volume absent major catalysts, while the lower odds on extremes highlight limited expectations for spikes or lulls. Key differentiating factors include any high-profile announcements or industry events that could shift engagement levels before the period concludes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$146Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the closely matched 180-239 tweet ranges as the most probable outcome for Elon Musk during August 7-14, 2026, with those bins commanding the top implied probabilities around 37%. This tight clustering among adjacent buckets reflects uncertainty around his variable posting cadence, shaped by ongoing business developments at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI alongside real-time news cycles and public commentary. Historical patterns indicate moderate weekly volume absent major catalysts, while the lower odds on extremes highlight limited expectations for spikes or lulls. Key differentiating factors include any high-profile announcements or industry events that could shift engagement levels before the period concludes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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