U.S. policy under the Trump administration has centered on Delcy Rodríguez as acting president following Nicolás Maduro’s January 2026 capture, with Washington normalizing diplomatic ties, securing oil arrangements, and backing dialogue processes that exclude María Corina Machado from leadership roles. Recent developments, including U.S. officials privately urging Machado to delay her return from exile and sidelining her movement in transition talks, reinforce trader expectations that formal recognition of her as Venezuela’s leader will not occur by year-end. The administration has prioritized stability, sanctions relief tied to cooperation, and incremental reforms over rapid opposition leadership changes. While late diplomatic reversals, domestic Venezuelan upheaval, or shifts in U.S. priorities remain possible disruptors, the established pattern of engagement with Rodríguez’s interim authorities sustains the strong market consensus against near-term recognition.