The U.S. conducted a limited January 2026 special operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro without triggering broader occupation or sustained combat, an action traders distinguish from a full invasion. Subsequent administration pressure on drug cartels has produced threats of strikes or enforcement actions against Mexico and Colombia, yet bilateral cooperation on security and migration has continued without escalation to ground operations. Official statements emphasize targeted enforcement and regional dominance under an updated Monroe Doctrine framework rather than regime-change wars. With roughly four months remaining in the resolution window and no confirmed plans for large-scale troop deployments, market pricing reflects the low likelihood of a qualifying invasion by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
12% chance
$269,883 Vol.
$269,883 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
12% chance
$269,883 Vol.
$269,883 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. conducted a limited January 2026 special operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro without triggering broader occupation or sustained combat, an action traders distinguish from a full invasion. Subsequent administration pressure on drug cartels has produced threats of strikes or enforcement actions against Mexico and Colombia, yet bilateral cooperation on security and migration has continued without escalation to ground operations. Official statements emphasize targeted enforcement and regional dominance under an updated Monroe Doctrine framework rather than regime-change wars. With roughly four months remaining in the resolution window and no confirmed plans for large-scale troop deployments, market pricing reflects the low likelihood of a qualifying invasion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$269,883Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. conducted a limited January 2026 special operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro without triggering broader occupation or sustained combat, an action traders distinguish from a full invasion. Subsequent administration pressure on drug cartels has produced threats of strikes or enforcement actions against Mexico and Colombia, yet bilateral cooperation on security and migration has continued without escalation to ground operations. Official statements emphasize targeted enforcement and regional dominance under an updated Monroe Doctrine framework rather than regime-change wars. With roughly four months remaining in the resolution window and no confirmed plans for large-scale troop deployments, market pricing reflects the low likelihood of a qualifying invasion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$269,883Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. conducted a limited January 2026 special operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro without triggering broader occupation or sustained combat, an action traders distinguish from a full invasion. Subsequent administration pressure on drug cartels has produced threats of strikes or enforcement actions against Mexico and Colombia, yet bilateral cooperation on security and migration has continued without escalation to ground operations. Official statements emphasize targeted enforcement and regional dominance under an updated Monroe Doctrine framework rather than regime-change wars. With roughly four months remaining in the resolution window and no confirmed plans for large-scale troop deployments, market pricing reflects the low likelihood of a qualifying invasion by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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