The high implied probability against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026 reflects the limited scope of the January 3, 2026, targeted operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro, followed by a shift toward sanctions, counter-narcotics cooperation, and diplomatic pressure rather than further military interventions. Subsequent developments, including U.S. offers of joint strikes on Colombian armed groups, heightened sanctions and oil restrictions affecting Cuba, and outreach to new regional governments, have emphasized coalition-building and economic tools over unilateral escalation. No major military deployments or official declarations signal plans for broader actions against Mexico, Cuba, or other nations through year-end, consistent with historical patterns of restraint on large-scale invasions in the hemisphere and competing U.S. priorities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
12% chance
$269,823 Vol.
$269,823 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
12% chance
$269,823 Vol.
$269,823 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The high implied probability against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026 reflects the limited scope of the January 3, 2026, targeted operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro, followed by a shift toward sanctions, counter-narcotics cooperation, and diplomatic pressure rather than further military interventions. Subsequent developments, including U.S. offers of joint strikes on Colombian armed groups, heightened sanctions and oil restrictions affecting Cuba, and outreach to new regional governments, have emphasized coalition-building and economic tools over unilateral escalation. No major military deployments or official declarations signal plans for broader actions against Mexico, Cuba, or other nations through year-end, consistent with historical patterns of restraint on large-scale invasions in the hemisphere and competing U.S. priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$269,823Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The high implied probability against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026 reflects the limited scope of the January 3, 2026, targeted operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro, followed by a shift toward sanctions, counter-narcotics cooperation, and diplomatic pressure rather than further military interventions. Subsequent developments, including U.S. offers of joint strikes on Colombian armed groups, heightened sanctions and oil restrictions affecting Cuba, and outreach to new regional governments, have emphasized coalition-building and economic tools over unilateral escalation. No major military deployments or official declarations signal plans for broader actions against Mexico, Cuba, or other nations through year-end, consistent with historical patterns of restraint on large-scale invasions in the hemisphere and competing U.S. priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$269,823Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026 reflects the limited scope of the January 3, 2026, targeted operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro, followed by a shift toward sanctions, counter-narcotics cooperation, and diplomatic pressure rather than further military interventions. Subsequent developments, including U.S. offers of joint strikes on Colombian armed groups, heightened sanctions and oil restrictions affecting Cuba, and outreach to new regional governments, have emphasized coalition-building and economic tools over unilateral escalation. No major military deployments or official declarations signal plans for broader actions against Mexico, Cuba, or other nations through year-end, consistent with historical patterns of restraint on large-scale invasions in the hemisphere and competing U.S. priorities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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