The Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election, scheduled for September 3, 2026, features a competitive three-way contest among NDP nominee Fatima Shaban, Liberal nominee Ahsanul Hafiz, and Progressive Conservative nominee Noor Tarun, alongside minor-party candidates. Shaban’s positioning draws from the riding’s recent NDP representation and her established local community ties, while Hafiz benefits from strong nomination performance and business connections in the diverse electorate. Advance voting has concluded with modest turnout near 5 percent, and a late-August candidates’ debate highlighted shared priorities on affordability and health care without clear shifts in momentum. Trader pricing, showing Shaban ahead at 59.5 percent implied probability with Hafiz near 39.5 percent and others minimal, reflects this tight dynamic ahead of final ballot counts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFatima Shaban 60%
Ahsanul Hafiz 39%
Noor Tarun 2.5%
Mark Bekkering <1%
$25,291 Vol.
$25,291 Vol.
Fatima Shaban
60%
Ahsanul Hafiz
39%
Noor Tarun
2%
Mark Bekkering
<1%
Chris Rees
<1%
Fatima Shaban 60%
Ahsanul Hafiz 39%
Noor Tarun 2.5%
Mark Bekkering <1%
$25,291 Vol.
$25,291 Vol.
Fatima Shaban
60%
Ahsanul Hafiz
39%
Noor Tarun
2%
Mark Bekkering
<1%
Chris Rees
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...The Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election, scheduled for September 3, 2026, features a competitive three-way contest among NDP nominee Fatima Shaban, Liberal nominee Ahsanul Hafiz, and Progressive Conservative nominee Noor Tarun, alongside minor-party candidates. Shaban’s positioning draws from the riding’s recent NDP representation and her established local community ties, while Hafiz benefits from strong nomination performance and business connections in the diverse electorate. Advance voting has concluded with modest turnout near 5 percent, and a late-August candidates’ debate highlighted shared priorities on affordability and health care without clear shifts in momentum. Trader pricing, showing Shaban ahead at 59.5 percent implied probability with Hafiz near 39.5 percent and others minimal, reflects this tight dynamic ahead of final ballot counts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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