The referendum on resuming EU accession talks is underway amid polls showing a statistical dead heat, with final surveys placing Yes and No within the margin of error and no decisive lead. This tight contest stems from deep divisions over Iceland’s fisheries sector and sovereignty versus potential gains in economic stability, currency management, and security ties, particularly against the backdrop of shifting U.S. policy in the North Atlantic. High probabilities on sub-3% margins for either side, alongside substantial “Other” pricing, reflect trader assessment of the narrow polling spreads and unresolved early-vote dynamics that could produce minimal separation once results finalize. A second referendum on actual membership would follow any Yes outcome, adding procedural layers that further complicate near-term resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNon <3 % 42%
Oui 3–6 % 35%
Non 12–15 % 34%
Oui <3 % 32%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 août 2026
Oui 15 %+
4%
Oui 12–15 %
9%
Oui 9–12 %
1%
Oui 6–9 %
12%
Oui 3–6 %
32%
Oui <3 %
38%
Non <3 %
51%
Non 3–6 %
15%
Non 6–9 %
15%
Non 9–12 %
16%
Non 12–15 %
34%
Non 15 %+
15%
Non <3 % 42%
Oui 3–6 % 35%
Non 12–15 % 34%
Oui <3 % 32%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 août 2026
Oui 15 %+
$108 Vol.
4%
Oui 12–15 %
$146 Vol.
9%
Oui 9–12 %
$21 Vol.
1%
Oui 6–9 %
$11 Vol.
12%
Oui 3–6 %
$47 Vol.
32%
Oui <3 %
$64 Vol.
38%
Non <3 %
$43 Vol.
51%
Non 3–6 %
$31 Vol.
15%
Non 6–9 %
$24 Vol.
15%
Non 9–12 %
$22 Vol.
16%
Non 12–15 %
$86 Vol.
34%
Non 15 %+
$16 Vol.
15%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The referendum on resuming EU accession talks is underway amid polls showing a statistical dead heat, with final surveys placing Yes and No within the margin of error and no decisive lead. This tight contest stems from deep divisions over Iceland’s fisheries sector and sovereignty versus potential gains in economic stability, currency management, and security ties, particularly against the backdrop of shifting U.S. policy in the North Atlantic. High probabilities on sub-3% margins for either side, alongside substantial “Other” pricing, reflect trader assessment of the narrow polling spreads and unresolved early-vote dynamics that could produce minimal separation once results finalize. A second referendum on actual membership would follow any Yes outcome, adding procedural layers that further complicate near-term resolution.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$620Date de fin
29 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The referendum on resuming EU accession talks is underway amid polls showing a statistical dead heat, with final surveys placing Yes and No within the margin of error and no decisive lead. This tight contest stems from deep divisions over Iceland’s fisheries sector and sovereignty versus potential gains in economic stability, currency management, and security ties, particularly against the backdrop of shifting U.S. policy in the North Atlantic. High probabilities on sub-3% margins for either side, alongside substantial “Other” pricing, reflect trader assessment of the narrow polling spreads and unresolved early-vote dynamics that could produce minimal separation once results finalize. A second referendum on actual membership would follow any Yes outcome, adding procedural layers that further complicate near-term resolution.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$620Date de fin
29 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The referendum on resuming EU accession talks is underway amid polls showing a statistical dead heat, with final surveys placing Yes and No within the margin of error and no decisive lead. This tight contest stems from deep divisions over Iceland’s fisheries sector and sovereignty versus potential gains in economic stability, currency management, and security ties, particularly against the backdrop of shifting U.S. policy in the North Atlantic. High probabilities on sub-3% margins for either side, alongside substantial “Other” pricing, reflect trader assessment of the narrow polling spreads and unresolved early-vote dynamics that could produce minimal separation once results finalize. A second referendum on actual membership would follow any Yes outcome, adding procedural layers that further complicate near-term resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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48%
Oui
Référendum sur les négociations d'adhésion de l'Islande à l'Union européenne adopté ?
38%
Oui
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70%
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