Record advance voting has reached a record 21% of eligible voters—far above historical norms for Icelandic referendums—signaling unusually high engagement driven by the razor-thin contest over resuming EU accession talks. Recent Gallup and Maskína polls show the “yes” and “no” sides essentially tied within sampling error, with the outcome hinging on mobilization rather than preference shifts. Historical parliamentary turnout near 80% and the salience of fisheries, sovereignty, cost-of-living pressures, and Arctic security concerns have further amplified participation incentives. Traders therefore price the highest probabilities in the 70–85% range, reflecting expectations that the polarized campaign and strong early mobilization will produce elevated overall turnout on election day.