Russia's September 18–20 State Duma elections feature three-day voting and expanded electronic options amid administrative mobilization of public-sector and corporate employees to meet turnout goals. The Kremlin has repeatedly lowered internal benchmarks from earlier 50% targets due to wartime economic strains, fuel shortages, and Ukrainian strikes that have dampened public engagement. Historical results from 2021 near 52% provide a baseline, while recent pro-Kremlin forecasts project 54–58% depending on the intensity of pressure tactics versus voter fatigue. Trader consensus clusters tightly around the 50–56% range because these competing pressures—coordinated turnout drives versus subdued organic participation—create balanced uncertainty without a clear recent catalyst to shift probabilities decisively higher or lower.